Conference League Predictions

Armenian Noah is among the surprises in the playoffs of European club tournaments. The team knocked out Shkendia and Sliema to make the sensation against AEK Athens in the previous round. In the playoff, the opponent is Slovakia’s Ružomberok, who handled Hajduk Split in the previous phase. In 50% of Noah’s European games, less than 2.5 goals were scored. This was also true in five of Ruzomberok’s six matches.

As I mentioned earlier, Fiorentina were among the favourites for the trophy, and here they are in the final. However, Olympiacos is effectively the home side in the decider and was phenomenal against Aston Villa in both games. The Greek’s form at the end of the season has been good, and they look all set to serve up the sensation. We can definitely see this game as an away game for the Violets, who have won in just two of their six games in the tournament away from home. A week ago, the favourite in the Europa League final failed to deliver, and I expect a similar outcome from today’s crucial match.

At the end of April, Emiliano Martinez left injured at the break with Chelsea, and that led to a loss in four of the five halves that followed. The world champion instilled great security in the players in front of him, and his absence clearly had a severe impact. The goalkeeper remains questionable for today’s game, and several other important players are in Aston Villa’s infirmary. The visitors have nothing to do but attack, and they are the favourites to win today. Their overall performance away is not very good, and they are again conceding shots into their own goal with ease.

Despite the statistics in the first match, I don’t think we should write off Bruges in the rematch. In my opinion, the hosts are even the favourites to succeed today. They are on a streak of six consecutive home successes in all tournaments, and in the Conference League, they failed to beat only Besiktas. The race on three fronts for Fiorentina, on the other hand, is already having an impact, and fatigue is setting in. “The Violets are still in good form in Florence, but in 2024, they have six losses and just two successes in eleven away games in all competitions. I’m expecting a result-laden match, and for that, I’m going with team shots instead of a final result in favour of Bruges.

In 2010, the upcoming opponents played their first ever matches against each other. Back then, they failed to defeat each other in their two Europa League group stage clashes, as both ended at 1-1. PAOK, however, qualified ahead finishing in second place, while Brugge remained last. I believe that the Greek grand will be able to advance in the Conference League now as well, despite being a goal down. I expect PAOK to melt Brugge’s lead in the first half and finish off the former Belgian champions in the second half.

The upcoming opponents have only two more battles between them, besides the one they played last week. In 2021 they meet in the Europa League, where they measure strength in the group stage. Olympiacos won again at home, but by 1-0 and also achieved a far more convincing victory in Turkey, as their duel there ended at 3-0. This time, however, I think the Greek grandma will not be able to come home with success, but quite the opposite. I expect Fenerbahce to get the victory in Istanbul, which will qualify the team to the semi-finals

Anything other than a win for Fiorentina today would be a surprise. However, the Violets have lost some of their attacking sharpness of late and have not scored more than a goal in six games now. Pilsen, on the other hand, did an excellent job defending last Thursday and are unlikely to change tactics today, at least as long as the score is 0-0. I expect to see few shots again.

Aston Villa’s performance this season is coming into focus, but we have to take into account that Lille are fourth in Ligue 1 and will almost certainly play at least in the Champions League qualifiers, and why not directly in the actual phase. The Mastiffs are a phenomenal home side, having only lost to Reims in all competitions and rarely not winning. However, the team has been conceding a lot of goals lately, which is also true for Aston Villa. I expect another interesting and even clash in which the opponents’ good attacking play will lead to shots on both goals.

The last defeat for the upcoming visitors was at the end of February, when they fell 1:3 to Toulouse, and since then they have recorded four wins and three draws, one of which was in the Conference League. However, I think that Aston Villa team will break the successful streak of the French club and reach success in England, which will bring it closer to the semi-finals of the tournament. It will also be a first defeat in the competition for the Mastiffs.

A great scoring record has been shown by both teams in the tournament, with Bruges scoring 19 goals in eight matches and PAOK scoring 21. Seven of the Greeks’ eight matches ended with over 2.5 goals and a shot on both goals. The Belgian team has six overtimes. In the domestic championships, Bruges and PAOK are again scoring with ease, but the problems remain in defence and too many goals scored. We have seen what happened in the Champions League games and maybe the goal spectacles will continue today.

Viktoria Plzen recorded an outstanding achievement as the team has not conceded a single goal at its own stadium in the Conference League so far, and has played a total of eight matches at the Doosan Arena. However, I believe that this time the Czech team will not be able to keep a dry net, as they face Fiorentina, who are much classier than the opponents they have played against so far, although the Violets are not having a very successful season. In 2024, the only away win for Fiore was against Maccabi Haifa.

There is no favourite in this clash and it shows in their current form and ambitions. Over the last month, Fenerbahce have been rocked by the Trabzonspor match scandal and the club’s protests to the Turkish federation, with even the Super Cup final against Galatasaray being boycotted. I think this cannot help but affect the players and they will not record a good result in Thessaloniki. Recall that Fenerbahce lost in two of their four away games so far in the tournament, including the one in Razgrad in the autumn.

Ajax also recorded a win at the weekend, but conceded a loss to AZ Alkmaar after eliminating Buddeaux. Otherwise, the Red and Whites won 2-0 at Utrecht on Sunday to maintain their fifth position. And in this campaign, Ajax can not reach the Eredivisie title, as the leader PSV is 27 points more. However, the Dutch team can hope to reach the Conference League trophy, but I think that after the end of the upcoming battle with Aston Villa the dreams will be extinguished. I expect the Villans to achieve a convincing victory over their rivals and secure a comfortable advance ahead of their clash in Birmingham.

Budo/Glimt, on the other hand, have not played a single game since the one at the Johan Cruyff Arena, as the Swiss championship has not yet started its new season. The Yellow and Blacks have six consecutive wins as hosts, and their last loss was at the beginning of October when they fell to Bruges in their Conference League group stage clash. I think Ajax are capable of breaking Buddeaux’s winning streak and even qualify for the next phase of the tournament. However, I expect both teams to get a goal in the opponent’s goal again as they did a week ago.

Last week Servette was undoubtedly the better team, but today I expect Ludogorets to be the more active of the two teams and emerge victorious from the clash. I also mentioned a week ago that the Eagles are the more experienced club, in the last decade, having won all three of their group stage home games in the autumn. We should also not forget that the pitch in Geneva was a hybrid one, and Ludogorets have proven they cannot play on similar and artificial pitches. The Eagles are favourites and I expect them to show why in the clash at the Huevefarma Arena.

Personally, I think Ghent will be able to turn things in their favour in the return leg, but the poor form in the new year is worrying, and a lot of goals were cashed in this period. In the group stage of the tournament the Belgians did impressively at home, but Maccabi are coming off the Europa League tournament where they faced far bigger names. The Israelis did not lose their visit to Villarreal and beat Panathinaikos in Greece, and it was their away performance that helped them to third place in the group. I’m expecting a result-laden match, with the home side having the upper hand, but also dangerous action from the visitors on the counter-attack.

The last away loss for Dinamo Zagreb was in the Conference League. At the beginning of November, the Croatian side went down 0-1 to Group C winner Viktoria Plzen. Since then, Dinamo have recorded two hacks and three wins, and in all three they didn’t register a goal. Now, however, I think the Blues will concede defeat and Betis will get closer to qualifying for the tournament. Also, however, despite the defeat, I expect the visitors not to fail to score in six consecutive away games.

I don’t believe the clash between the two has to be decided in Servetus and at most we will see a goal advantage for either team. Servetus is a pretty strong host, having lost only to Young Boys and Slavia Prague all season and mostly winning. However, the team has cashed in a goal in all of its ten European games in the fall, including the qualifiers. Ludogorets’ duels in Europe are pretty crazy, and despite a poor away performance, I expect at least a goal today from the Bulgarian champion, who has the experience and confidence of a team that has accumulated a serious number of European games in the last ten-plus years.

There is no doubt which of the two teams is the better, with the visitors not even at a good enough level in their home league, where they are only third and a point off the top. Fenerbahce, on the other hand, took the derby with Besiktas over the weekend and are ready for another excellent result today. The team has been almost flawless and very efficient at home since the start of the season, the only setback being the loss to Sivaspor. In each of their home games the team scored at least two goals.

One of the reasons why Nordseland is a good host in Europe is the long trip to Denmark, the different climate and especially the artificial pitch. However, all these pros turn into cons for the Danish team when they have to play away. The home factor in this group has proven to be key and I expect that to be the case today as well when Ludogorets win and eliminate their opponent from the tournament.

For sure, we are waiting for a great match in which defense will not be a priority for either team. Ludogorets can’t keep players like Dzeko, Batshuayi and Tadic even if they want to and at the same time they have to chase a must-win. So far, the matches in this group have been quite fruitful, as both teams have managed to score in each match, and the dry net is only one – in the asset of Ludogorets.

Fenerbahce have a bunch of big names in their ranks. Among them are good strikers such as Edin Dzeko, Dusan Tadic, Mishi Batshuayi, Cengis Yunder and Joshua King. In the midfield, former Manchester United player Fred is attracting attention, while Croatian international Dominik Livakovic is in goal. The difference in class between the two squads is huge and I think that will be evident from the first minute of the game.

Nordseeland and Ludogorets have never played against each other, and with their continuous participation in the groups, the Bulgarian champion definitely has more experience. Today, however, the hosts are the favourites, and I listed some of the reasons in the first paragraph. Traditionally, Nordseland is extremely good on their own ground, and FCSB and Partizan were not able to oppose them at all, even game-wise. Ludogorets on the other hand have already lost to Balkan, Olimpija and Astana away in Europe, and Ajax’s success, while prestigious, was irrelevant. The Eagles also lost to Cherno More and Krumovgrad in the First League to have a negative away record this season.

So far, the two teams have not faced each other, and Ludogorets is the much more experienced and deserved favorite in the match. As usual, the Eagles also play much better as a host in Europe, while Spartak Tarnava, for example, did not win any of the three visits in the qualifiers, but managed to sign off in them. Definitely the Bulgarian champion is not showing the right level and I think they will face serious difficulties in the battle for the three points today. We should not underestimate the visitors and I think they will at least take advantage of their opponent’s hesitations in defence and score.