Mainz come into this first leg with four wins and two draws from their last six matches, and they have scored at least twice in five of those games. Their most recent outing finished 2-1 at Hoffenheim, while their home European tie with Sigma Olomouc ended 2-0, so their recent run has been built on steady attacking output rather than cautious game management.
Strasbourg are in similarly good shape, with three wins and three draws from their last six, and they have also been hard to shut out. Their latest match was a 3-1 home win over Nice, and before that they scored three at Nantes, which underlines that they can contribute to a higher total even away from home.
The goal pattern points more towards an open tie than a tight knockout cage. Strasbourg have been involved in eight Both Teams To Score games in their last ten, while Mainz have gone eight matches unbeaten and have found the net in each of their recent wins. The only head-to-head reference available is a 0-0 friendly, but that sits well outside the competitive context here and does not carry much weight against the current scoring runs.
There is still a small tension with the exact total because Strasbourg have also shown they can keep things controlled, with two recent league draws finishing 0-0. Even so, their xG in the win over Nice was 2.9 and Mainz posted 2.2 xG at Hoffenheim, so both sides are arriving with enough attacking volume to push this beyond a conservative scoreline.
My prediction is Over 2.5 Goals at 17/20. Mainz have scored two or more in five of their last six, Strasbourg have scored in five of their last six, and both teams are carrying strong unbeaten runs into the match. Strasbourg’s recent BTTS trend and the two teams’ latest xG figures both point to chances at either end, even if the knockout setting leaves a little room for caution.
