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Armenia U21 arrive with six straight defeats and no win in ten, a run that has left them vulnerable almost from the first whistle in qualification. They have also gone seven of their last eight with more than 2.5 goals, and four of their last five have seen both teams score, so their matches are rarely controlled for long.
North Macedonia U21 are not in much better shape overall, but their recent away games have been open enough to keep them in the picture for a result. They followed the 0-4 defeat in Italy with a 3-2 loss in Montenegro, and they have also produced a 2-1 win away to Armenia in this group, which is the clearest head-to-head pointer in their favour.
The scoring profile of this fixture leans away from a cautious draw. Five of the last six meetings have gone over 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored in all five of the most recent head-to-heads listed. Armenia have also failed to keep a clean sheet in six straight meetings with North Macedonia, so a home shutout would be a surprise.
There is a small tension with the away win call because North Macedonia have lost four of their last six overall, but their one victory in that spell came against Armenia and they have not lost to them in six meetings. Armenia’s long winless sequence and their habit of conceding first further weaken the case for the hosts to turn this around.
My prediction is Away Win at 6/4. North Macedonia U21 already beat Armenia U21 2-1 in this group, Armenia are winless in ten and have lost six in a row, and the hosts have gone without a clean sheet in six straight head-to-heads. The recent meeting trend also leans their way, with five of the last six clashes producing over 2.5 goals and regular North Macedonia scoring away from home.
