Bosnia & Herzegovina look like a strong fit for a goals-based pick because both teams have scored in each of their last six matches, and five of those six also produced at least three goals. Their recent results include a 3-1 win over Romania, a 2-2 draw with Cyprus and a 4-1 win over Malta, so they are contributing enough going forward but still giving chances up at the other end.

Italy bring a slightly different profile, but it still leans toward this market. They have won four of their last five, and four of their last seven matches have gone over 2.5 goals, including a 5-4 game away to Israel, a 3-1 win in Estonia and a 4-1 home loss to Norway. The slight caution is that they just beat Northern Ireland 2-0, so they can land on the wrong side of BTTS if they control the match too well.

The projections point toward goals from both sides rather than a cagey playoff game. Bosnia & Herzegovina are priced as underdogs here but the xG call is close, at 1.5 for them and 1.4 for Italy, which gives this fixture a balanced attacking shape and lines up with the 1-2 correct-score view.

Bosnia & Herzegovina’s most recent game on 26 March also supports the idea that they can get on the scoresheet against stronger opposition. They drew 1-1 away to Wales despite being outshot only 12-9 and actually creating the clearer openings with four big chances to none, equalising late through Edin Džeko. That is useful for this market because Italy do not need to dominate a low-event game if Bosnia can create enough themselves.

My prediction is BTTS or Over 2.5 at 1.72. Bosnia & Herzegovina have seen both teams score in all of their last six matches, five of those six also cleared the three-goal line, and Italy have been involved in several high-scoring results recently, including 5-4, 3-1 and 4-1 scorelines. The xG projection of 1.5 to 1.4 also supports a match where at least one side should reach two goals or both teams should score.