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Çaykur Rizespor host Gaziantep FK on Monday evening in the Trendyol Süper Lig, and this one sits right in that awkward middle ground of the table where pride, momentum and a few extra points can still change the feel of a season. Rizespor begin the day 12th with 33 points, just behind Gaziantep in 10th on 34. Neither side is looking up at Europe, and neither is breathing completely easy either. A win would help settle the nerves. A defeat would drag them back into the scrap.
For Recep Uçar’s Rizespor, the picture is fairly simple: they need to turn decent home work into something more stable. Gaziantep, under Burak Yilmaz, arrive with a good away record and a habit of making games messy. They’ve got enough to hurt opponents, but their defensive numbers have been too generous. That’s why this fixture feels more open than the league positions might suggest. One goal either way changes the whole tone. Maybe even two.
Rizespor come into this after one of their best performances of the campaign, a 4-1 home win over Samsunspor on 9 April. It was lively, sharp and, at times, ruthless. Loide Augusto scored twice, Attila Mocsi got in on the act, and Qazim Laci ran the game from midfield with a goal and assist. That’s the sort of display that reminds you what they can do when the game opens up. Before that, though, there were bumps. They lost 2-1 away to Fatih Karagümrük, went down 1-0 at Trabzonspor, then had already beaten Antalyaspor 1-0 at home and Kasımpaşa 3-0 away in earlier league action. The pattern is obvious enough. When Rizespor are on song, they can win cleanly. When they’re not, they tend to lose tight matches.
That home win over Samsunspor mattered because their season at the Caykur Didi Stadium has been solid rather than spectacular. In league play, Rizespor’s home record stands at six wins, two draws and six defeats, with 17 goals scored and 18 conceded. That’s a perfectly respectable base, but not the record of a side that controls games on its own turf. They can score, sure. They can also be got at. The balance has been just a touch too fragile. One clean sheet from the last few league matches at home would help, but they’ve often had to win the hard way.
Still, there’s a spark about them when they attack with pace and purpose. Their recent win over Samsunspor was backed up by a healthy xG return of 2.16, and they created four big chances. That’s not the profile of a team living on scraps. The flip side? They did allow 1.65 xGA and conceded plenty of shots. Rizespor will fancy themselves here, but they won’t want a track meet. If this turns into a loose, end-to-end game, their defensive record says they’re just as likely to be dragged into a shootout as they are to dominate it.
Gaziantep arrive with a very different kind of recent story. Their last outing was a 1-1 draw at home to Alanyaspor on 4 April, a game where they never really found control despite producing 15 shots. Ibrahim Kaya put them ahead before Kacper Kozłowski restored some order after the break, but that was about as smooth as it got. Before that came a nasty 4-1 defeat away to Fenerbahçe. Before that, though, they had beaten Antalyaspor 4-1 on the road, which tells you everything about this team’s odd rhythm. They’re capable of looking dangerous away from home, then just as capable of falling apart the next time they step into a tough match.
Burak Yilmaz will know the basic issue. Gaziantep score enough to stay alive in games, but they concede too often. Their overall league numbers are blunt: 37 scored, 47 conceded. That’s a lot of goals leaking out, and it explains why they’re only two points above Rizespor despite sitting two places higher. Their away record is a decent one on the surface — four wins, five draws and five defeats, with 19 goals scored and 24 conceded — but it doesn’t scream control. It screams unpredictability. They can nick points. They can also gift them away.
The run-in to this game hasn’t helped settle them either. They’re winless in two and have just one victory in their last six, that 4-1 success at Antalyaspor. The rest has been patchy: a draw with Alanyaspor, a draw with Fatih Karagümrük, a draw away to Samsunspor, and the heavy loss at Fenerbahçe. Mind you, their away profile still makes them awkward visitors. They don’t fold every week. They’ve already shown they can score on the road, and that’s the key reason they can’t be dismissed here. But if you’re looking for a side with real defensive grip, Gaziantep aren’t it.
That fragility has shown up in a broader run too. They’ve gone five matches without a clean sheet, and that’s hard to ignore. Rizespor don’t need much encouragement at home, especially after a four-goal burst against Samsunspor. Gaziantep will fancy getting on the scoresheet, but keeping the game quiet? That’s a harder ask.
This fixture has had goals in it, and recent meetings lean slightly toward Rizespor avoiding defeat at home. The most eye-catching result came in December when they met in the Türkiye Kupası and Rizespor stormed to a 5-2 win. That was a proper open game. Before that, the Süper Lig meeting in Gaziantep finished 2-2 in November, which fits the more recent tone between the sides — competitive, a bit chaotic, and rarely dead.
Zoom out a little and the balance still tilts Rizespor’s way. They beat Gaziantep 2-0 at home in May 2025 and 3-1 in March 2024, while Gaziantep’s own home win in December 2024 was narrow at 1-0. The main angle worth carrying forward is simple enough: Rizespor haven’t lost any of the last three meetings with Gaziantep, and that’s not a random quirk. It speaks to a matchup they generally handle well, especially on home soil. Gaziantep have also gone three meetings here without a clean sheet. That matters.
We’re backing Double Chance 1X at 1/6 for this one, and it feels like the safest angle on the board. Rizespor’s home numbers are steady enough, they just put four past Samsunspor, and they’ve had Gaziantep’s number in this matchup more often than not. Add in Gaziantep’s five-game run without a clean sheet, and it’s hard to picture the visitors shutting the door long enough to take control.
The correct score call is 1-1. That may sound a touch cautious after Rizespor’s last home blast, but Gaziantep have enough away scoring threat to make life awkward. At the same time, their defence is too soft to trust for a win. A draw feels live, and 1X covers the likeliest home-side path in a game where the margins should be thin. If you want a slightly bolder angle, both teams to score also appeals, but the double chance remains the cleaner play.
