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FC Porto come in unbeaten in six, and although their most recent outing finished 2-2 with Famalicão, that game was messy rather than open in a clean attacking sense. They were second best on xG, shots, shots on target and big chances, so the draw owed plenty to late recovery rather than a stream of clear chances.
At home, Porto have still kept enough control to matter for a BTTS angle: they beat Stuttgart 2-0 in the Europa League knockout stage and also put three past Moreirense without reply. Across their last six, only one match ended with them failing to score, but the stronger point is that they have shown they can shut opponents out when the game is structured on their terms.
Nottingham Forest arrive with a mixed away profile. Their 3-0 win at Tottenham Hotspur came after a 1-2 success at FC Midtjylland, yet they also drew 0-0 with Fulham and lost at home to Midtjylland in Europe. That leaves them capable of scoring on the road, but not consistently reliable, and the 2-0 defeat they suffered to Porto in their first meeting is the clearest sign that this matchup can narrow quickly.
The xG projection of 1.5 for Porto and 1.0 for Forest points to a match with chances for both sides, but not a guaranteed exchange of goals. Porto’s recent home results include a clean sheet in Europe, while Forest’s away form has already produced a blank at Fulham and a shutout loss against Porto’s style of pressure.
My prediction is BTTS - No at 4/5. Porto have already kept Stuttgart out at home in this competition, Forest were blanked by Fulham and by Porto in the earlier meeting, and the projected 1.5 to 1.0 xG line leaves room for one side to come up short. Porto can score, but this looks more like a game where one clean sheet decides it than a straightforward both-sides-to-score contest.
