FK Novi Pazar host OFK Beograd on Saturday evening in the Mozzart Bet Superliga championship round, with both sides still chasing something meaningful as the season tightens up. Novi Pazar sit fifth on 47 points, four clear of their visitors, and that gap matters. A win here would strengthen their grip on a top-half finish and keep the pressure on the teams above them. OFK are sixth on 40, and although they’ve been stubborn all season, this is the sort of fixture that can either drag them closer to the pack or leave them staring at the same mid-table ceiling.
There’s a bit more riding on it than the table alone suggests. These two have already met three times in the current league cycle, and Novi Pazar have come out on top every time. That doesn’t decide anything on its own, but it does shape the mood. OFK arrive with a long unbeaten run and a habit of making games awkward. Novi Pazar, on the other hand, have been lively at home and have a point to prove after letting the late stages of their season get a little ragged. This won’t be a stroll. Still, the home side look the more convincing bet.
FK Novi Pazar Form & Analysis
Novi Pazar’s recent run has had both the good and the frustrating in it, and the frustration has started to bite. Their last home game was a 3-2 defeat to Partizan on 9 April, a match they actually played with plenty of attacking ambition. They scored first through Demba Seck after three minutes, went in level at 1-1 at the break thanks to Driton Camaj, and kept punching back after the restart. Sebastian Polter and Milan Vukotić were involved in a lively second half, but they still ended up empty-handed. Before that came a 2-0 defeat away to Železničar Pančevo, a goalless draw at Javor Ivanjica, and a 1-1 home draw with Čukarički. The one bright moment in that sequence was the 2-0 away win at Mladost Lučani on 9 March. Since then, though, they’ve gone four without a win. That’s the blunt truth.
Even so, this is a different proposition at home. Novi Pazar have taken 27 points from 15 league matches on their own ground, with eight wins, three draws and four defeats. They’ve scored 21 and conceded 18 there, which tells you a lot about the kind of side they are in front of their own crowd: positive, open, and rarely dull. They’re not a clean-sheet machine, but they do enough going forward to make most home games competitive. The numbers at home are solid rather than dominant, yet the balance is good enough to keep them in the hunt for wins against sides around them.
The one thing that stands out most is that they usually find a way to stay in the game. Even when they lose, they rarely go missing. Against Partizan, they produced 19 shots and nine on target, which is plenty of attacking work for a team that lost 3-2. That kind of output explains why they’ve been involved in plenty of lively scorelines at home, but it also hints at the problem: they give opponents chances too. Novi Pazar can hurt teams. They can also leave the door open. In a match like this, that’s both their strength and their risk.
OFK Beograd Form & Analysis
OFK Beograd come into this one with a very different kind of rhythm. They haven’t lost in seven league matches, and the run is full of draws that have felt half-valuable, half-futile. Their most recent outing was a 0-0 home draw with Radnik Surdulica on 9 April. It was one of those games where the control was there — 10 shots, only two allowed, and an xGA of just 0.14 — but the finishing wasn’t. Saša Marković was sent off late on, which took some shine off an otherwise tidy defensive showing. Before that, they beat Radnički Niš 2-1 away, and before that came a bruising 3-3 draw at home to IMT Beograd. A 2-2 draw at Napredak Kruševac, another 0-0 against Radnički 1923, and a 2-1 win away at Partizan round out a sequence that has been hard to beat but not always easy to trust.
That’s the key point with OFK. They’re competitive everywhere, especially away from home, but too many of their recent matches have drifted into stalemate territory. Their away record is actually decent — seven wins, five draws and three losses, with 23 goals scored and 20 conceded — so they don’t travel like a timid side. They’ve taken 26 points on the road, which is a very respectable return, and they’ve already shown they can win in difficult places. The flip side? They’re still conceding too often to feel secure for long. Away from home, they’re more efficient than flashy. That can work. It doesn’t always carry you through tight away nights.
The draw-heavy pattern tells its own story. OFK have found a way to avoid defeat, but they’ve also made a habit of leaving results hanging. They’ve only lost once in the league in a long stretch, and that resilience has kept them in the frame. Still, if they sit too deep here or allow Novi Pazar to dictate the tempo early, they’ll invite exactly the kind of pressure that has hurt them in away games before. Can they keep shutting teams out? The recent evidence says the answer is no, at least not for 90 minutes at a time.
Head-to-Head
Novi Pazar have had the better of this fixture for a while now, and the recent meetings are hard to ignore. In the reverse league game on 15 February, they beat OFK Beograd 2-1 away from home. Earlier this season they also won 2-0 in Belgrade on 13 September 2025, and they beat OFK 3-2 away in May 2025. That’s three wins from the last three league meetings in this cycle. Not a bad habit to have.
The broader pattern leans the same way. Novi Pazar haven’t lost any of their last nine meetings with OFK Beograd, and the visitors haven’t kept a clean sheet in four straight games in this matchup. OFK can make things awkward, but Novi Pazar have repeatedly found a way through them. That matters here. It really does.
We Predict: Home Win
We’re backing FK Novi Pazar to win at 4/6 here. It’s a fairly short price, and for good reason. They’ve already beaten OFK Beograd three times in this league cycle, they’re stronger at home than the away side are on the road, and their attacking output at their own ground should be enough to tilt a close game in their favour. OFK’s unbeaten run is impressive, but a lot of it has been built on draws. That’s fine until you’re facing a side that has a clear edge in the matchup.
A 2-1 home win feels the right call. Novi Pazar should create enough to score twice, while OFK’s away record suggests they’re good for a goal themselves. The xG projection leans slightly towards the hosts, 1.4 to 1.1, which fits the same picture: a tight game, but one where the home side have the sharper edge. If you want a safer angle, Novi Pazar in the draw no bet market would be the conservative route. But the straight home win is the value play.
