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Latina come into this knockout tie having lost three of their last four, and the recent numbers are not especially kind to their defensive case. They were beaten 1-0 by Catania on 28 March after posting only 0.47 xG, and earlier in March they also lost 3-1 away to Cosenza and 3-1 away to Potenza. Even in the wins, Latina have still been conceding, with four of their last five league matches seeing both teams score.
Potenza Calcio bring a more convincing away-winning profile into the return leg. They have won three of their last five away games in all competitions, including a 1-0 success at Foggia and the 3-1 cup win over Latina on 18 March. Their recent results also show they are not shy in front of goal, with five scored in the 5-2 win over Salernitana and at least one goal in five of their last six matches.
The head-to-head record also leans Potenza’s way, with no defeats in their last three meetings with Latina. That matters here because the visitors have already handled this fixture twice this season, drawing 0-0 in Potenza back in October and then winning 3-1 in the cup two weeks ago. Latina have not kept a clean sheet in five straight matches, which leaves them vulnerable if Potenza find their usual away rhythm again.
There is a small tension with the xG projection, which has this as a relatively modest attacking game at 1.2 for Latina and 0.9 for Potenza, but the recent results are still more persuasive than the baseline expectation. Potenza have been more reliable in direct matchups, more productive in their latest run, and Latina’s run of three games without a win adds to the away case.
My prediction is Away Win at 6/4. Potenza have already beaten Latina twice this season, they are unbeaten in the last three head-to-head meetings, and Latina have lost three of their last four while failing to keep a clean sheet in five straight matches. Potenza’s recent away wins at Foggia and in the cup at Latina also point in the same direction.
