Manchester United come into this knockout tie with six wins from six, but their recent home games have been lively rather than controlled, with Everton edging a 2-1 loss and Atlético Madrid beaten 2-0 in the Champions League. Bayern arrive in even more explosive scoring form, having scored five at SGS Essen, three at Köln, four against Wolfsburg and six at Jena across their last four away and home outings in domestic football.

That combination points strongly toward goals rather than a cautious first leg. United have scored in every recent match listed and have allowed one in three of their last four, while Bayern’s away results have repeatedly gone beyond 2.5 goals on their own. Even the xG line leans that way, with a projected 1.4 for United and 2.0 for Bayern, which sits comfortably above the market threshold.

There is a small tension in United’s recent Champions League defence, because they kept Atlético out over two legs, including a 3-0 away win and a 2-0 home win. Still, Bayern’s attack is a different level of test, and their last six matches have all been wins with at least three total goals every time. With Bayern also taking the lead frequently in this sort of run, the game should open up if either side scores first.

The most relevant head-to-head note is Bayern’s 3-0 win over Manchester United in 2022, which fits the idea that this matchup can stretch beyond a tight scoreline. United’s recent home wins have also carried goals at both ends or at least two for them, so a single Bayern strike may be enough to turn it into a more open contest. A 1-2 type of scoreline is close to the market line, but it still clears the total.

My prediction is Over 2.5 Goals at 73/100. Bayern have gone over this line in each of their last six matches, United have seen three or more goals in several of their recent home games, and both teams are arriving with six straight wins. The xG projection of 1.4 to 2.0 also points to a total that should land above the threshold, even if United’s better defensive showing against Atlético adds a little caution.