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Molde come into this one with two straight league losses and no win in their opening two, while their home record is especially poor after a 0-5 defeat against SK Brann Kvinner. They have conceded eight goals already and have yet to keep a clean sheet, which is a bad sign against an away side that has started unbeaten and has only conceded once.
Lyn have taken four points from six and arrive without a loss in their last two league games. Their away win at Stabæk Fotball and the 1-1 draw with LSK Kvinner FK suggest a side that can travel well enough to avoid defeat, even if the 1-1 finish against LSK came with a slight tension between the scoreline and Lyn’s very low xGA of 0.16 in that match.
The broader numbers also lean toward Lyn’s side of the result. Molde’s home record is still blank in the league, while Lyn are already up and running away from home with a win and a clean sheet. The only head-to-head listed here also went Lyn’s way, a 3-1 cup win at Molde in 2018.
Molde have at least shown they can create chances, with an xG of 1.5 at Hønefoss BK and a shot count of 13, but the problem is that they allowed the same xG against and still lost 3-1. Lyn, by contrast, have started with 2 goals scored and only 1 conceded in the league, which matches a side that has been harder to beat and more controlled in their recent matches.
My prediction is Away Win at 67/100. Lyn’s unbeaten start, their away win at Stabæk Fotball, and their 1-0 away defensive record all support the visitors. Molde have lost both league matches, conceded eight goals, and have already fallen behind at home. The projected 1-2 scoreline is not overconfident, but it still points to Lyn having the stronger chance of taking all three points.
