NK Varaždin host NK Slaven Belupo in the HNL on Sunday evening, 12 April 2026, with both sides packed tightly together in the top half of the table. Varaždin start the day in fourth on 38 points, one place and two points clear of Slaven Belupo, so there’s real value on this one even if it doesn’t carry the drama of a title race. A win for Nikola Šafarić’s side would strengthen their grip on a European-looking finish. Slaven, under Mario Gregurina, need the points just as badly if they’re to keep the pressure on the teams above them.
This is also a meeting between two clubs who know each other well, and the recent results add a bit of spice. Varaždin beat Slaven 2-0 in Koprivnica on 31 January, but Slaven had already taken the win in three of the four meetings before that. There’s a pattern here. Goals usually arrive, and neither side has been able to fully dominate the other for long.
The table, though, slightly favours the hosts. Varaždin have the stronger overall defensive record and a decent home return, while Slaven’s away numbers are still a problem. That gap doesn’t scream a one-sided game. It does point towards the home side having the edge, with goals more likely than a tight, cagey stalemate.
NK Varaždin Form & Analysis
Varaždin come into this on the back of a flat but not disastrous spell. Their most recent league outing was a 1-1 draw at home to HNK Gorica on 3 April, a game they probably should’ve won given the territory they had. Before that came a 2-1 loss away to NK Istra 1961, but they had beaten HNK Vukovar 1991 2-0 at home and drawn 1-1 away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. The rhythm is clear enough: competitive, difficult to beat, but not always ruthless. That’s been the story for a while.
Their home performance against Gorica told you a fair bit about the side. Varaždin posted 1.54 xG and limited Gorica to 0.52, registered 16 shots to five, and still only managed a draw. That’s the frustration with them right now. They’re getting into good areas, they’re producing enough chances, and yet the end product isn’t always matching the build-up. Still, a home side that controls matches like that usually keeps giving itself chances. Eventually, one of them lands.
At home in the league, Varaždin have been solid rather than spectacular: six wins, five draws and three defeats, with 20 goals scored and 19 conceded. That’s a respectable base, and it explains why they’ve hung around the upper part of the standings. They’re not blowing teams away, but they’re also not gifting much away at their own ground. The concern is that this often turns into a narrow contest, and narrow contests can swing on one moment. That’s the risk.
One encouraging note for Šafarić is that Varaždin’s recent home games have still carried a decent attacking edge. They’ve scored in enough matches to keep the pressure on opponents, and their 2-0 win over Vukovar 1991 came after a run of tight results, which shows they can still put a poorer side away when the chance opens up. They’ve lost only three home league matches all season. That matters here.
NK Slaven Belupo Form & Analysis
Slaven Belupo arrive without a win in six, and the mood around the club is probably a bit sour after the way the last week has gone. They were beaten 2-0 away to HNK Rijeka in the cup on 8 April, which followed a 2-0 home defeat to the same opponent in the league four days earlier. Before that, they had drawn 0-0 at home to NK Osijek, lost 4-2 away to GNK Dinamo Zagreb, then shared a 1-1 draw at home with NK Lokomotiva Zagreb in the cup and 2-2 away to HNK Gorica in the league. No wins. A few draws, yes. Momentum? None.
The blank against Osijek stands out, because it was the sort of match where Slaven needed to show some control and instead left people wondering where the cutting edge had gone. They’ve now failed to score in three of their last four. That’s a problem, plain and simple. Even when they did get to four against Dinamo in Zagreb, they were still beaten 4-2. So the occasional attacking flicker hasn’t translated into anything steady. You can’t keep leaning on isolated good spells.
Their away league record is another warning sign. Slaven have managed only two wins on the road, with six draws and six defeats, and they’ve scored 17 while conceding 27 away from home. That’s not the profile of a side travelling with confidence. They can draw games, sure, but they also allow too many chances at the back. Against a Varaždin team that’s usually comfortable at home and capable of creating pressure, that’s a concern. A big one.
Mind you, Slaven aren’t hopeless on the road in the sense that they fold immediately. They’ve had enough draws away to show they can hang around. But hanging around isn’t enough when the opposition is stronger in the table and in a better home groove. Mario Gregurina’s side need a sharper first hour than they’ve produced recently. If they fall behind, this starts to look like a long afternoon.
Head-to-Head
These two have been trading blows for some time, and the recent meetings have offered a split picture. Varaždin’s 2-0 win away on 31 January was a clean, efficient result, the sort of performance they’d love to repeat here. Before that, though, Slaven had beaten them 3-1 in Varaždin in October and 3-1 at home in August. In 2025, Varaždin won 1-0 away in April, Slaven replied with a 1-0 win in February, and there was a 1-1 draw in November 2024.
That’s a decent reminder not to overstate home advantage in this fixture. Still, one H2H trend is hard to ignore: these games often settle with both sides finding a route to goal, and they’ve usually been competitive rather than wildly open. The January meeting was the exception in the recent batch. If Varaždin can control the middle of the pitch again, they’ve got a good chance of keeping Slaven at arm’s length. That said, history says Slaven rarely go quietly in this pairing.
We Predict: Over 1.5 Goals
We’re backing Over 1.5 Goals at 1/3 here. It’s short, yes, but it’s still the strongest angle on the board. Varaždin have been involved in enough matches with goals at both ends, Slaven’s away record is leaky, and the visitors have now gone six without a win while failing to score in three of their last four. One goal from Varaždin changes the tone immediately. Two would probably settle it.
A 2-1 home win feels about right. Varaždin have the better balance at home, and their recent xG numbers against Gorica suggest they’re still creating enough to score more than once against weaker resistance. Slaven, for all their issues, usually find a way to contribute something in this kind of fixture. If you wanted a more ambitious angle, Varaždin to win and both teams to score is the sort of shout that fits the recent pattern, though it’s a touch less reliable than the goals line.
