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Real Madrid welcome Deportivo Alavés to the Bernabéu on Tuesday evening, 21 April 2026, in a LaLiga meeting that matters at both ends of the table. Álvaro Arbeloa’s side are second and still in the title fight, sitting on 70 points with only a handful of games left. Every slip is expensive now. Alavés, meanwhile, arrive 17th on 33 points and looking over their shoulder. Relegation isn’t a theoretical threat for them. It’s right there.
There’s also a contrast in momentum, though neither camp comes in cleanly polished. Madrid have been dragged through a bruising run in Europe and left with a mixed domestic picture, while Alavés have become one of those awkward opponents who don’t travel to simply make up the numbers. They’ve picked up points in a messy, open spell and they’re not short of belief. Still, this is a very big ask away to the league’s second-placed side.
The context is straightforward enough. Madrid need to keep pressure on the leaders and protect their home record, which has been one of the best in the division. Alavés need something from somewhere to keep the drop zone at arm’s length. A point would be welcome. A win would be enormous. The problem is that the gap in quality is hard to ignore, and the Bernabéu usually punishes sides who leave too much space.
Madrid’s last month has been volatile, and that’s putting it mildly. They beat Atlético Madrid 3-2 at home on 22 March in a game that had the usual Madrid edge and chaos, then came away from Mallorca with a 2-1 defeat on 4 April, a result that stung because it followed a lead without turning dominance into control. A 1-2 home loss to Bayern München in the Champions League on 7 April added more frustration, and the 1-1 draw with Girona at home on 10 April felt like another step that wasn’t quite forward. Then came the wild 4-3 defeat away to Bayern in Munich, a tie that had everything except composure. They scored, they pushed, they lost discipline. That won’t have pleased Arbeloa one bit.
At home, though, Madrid are still a different animal. Their league record at the Bernabéu reads 13 wins, one draw and two defeats, with 37 goals scored and only 13 conceded. That’s the sort of home return that can carry a title challenge. They don’t just win there; they usually control games there. Even after that draw with Girona, the broader picture remains strong. They’ve also been part of plenty of open games lately. The 3-2 win over Atlético and the 1-1 with Girona fit a pattern of Madrid being dangerous going forward but not always water-tight at the back. Three of the last four in all competitions have featured at least three goals. That’s not a surprise with this squad. They play on the front foot, and when the tempo rises, they leave gaps.
The bigger concern is that Madrid haven’t looked totally settled defensively in their recent high-level games. Bayern created plenty in both meetings, and even if the Champions League tie pulled focus, the league form isn’t quite ruthless enough right now. Still, at home against a side fighting near the bottom, they’ll expect to impose themselves. The Bernabéu crowd won’t settle for caution. They want fast starts and pressure. Madrid usually provide both.
Alavés have been playing on a knife edge, and their recent results show exactly that. They went to Celta Vigo and came out with a 4-3 win on 22 March, one of those away performances that tells you they can bite when games open up. Since then, though, the road has become less kind to them. A 1-1 draw with Villarreal at home on 13 March was solid enough, then they lost 2-3 away to Valencia on 8 March and 2-0 away to Levante on 27 February. The home draw with Osasuna on 5 April and the wild 3-3 at Real Sociedad on 11 April continued the theme: plenty of goals, plenty of noise, very little comfort. That’s Alavés in a nutshell right now.
Their league position tells the story. Seventeenth on 33 points is survival territory, nothing more. The away record is decent by the standards of a side in the lower half — 13th in the road table with three wins, three draws and ten losses — but the goals against column is still a problem. They’ve conceded 28 away goals and scored 16, which is respectable enough on one side and shaky on the other. They’re not getting blown away every week, but they’re also not keeping games under control. When they do score, they tend to invite a response. That can be useful if you’re chasing a result. It can also bury you.
The recent scoring pattern is what really stands out. Alavés have found the net in plenty of their latest games and they’ve shown a knack for getting involved in chaos, especially away from home. The 3-3 draw at Real Sociedad was a proper scramble, and the 4-3 win at Celta wasn’t exactly a defensive masterclass. This is a side that’ll have a go, even in difficult venues. Can they keep it tight at the Bernabéu? That’s the problem. They probably can’t, not for 90 minutes. Madrid don’t need much encouragement to turn a match into a wave of pressure, and Alavés have not been keeping clean sheets often enough to trust them in that environment.
Still, they won’t travel in fear. Quique Sánchez Flores will know that Madrid have looked vulnerable at times, especially when opponents break cleanly through midfield. If Alavés can stay in the contest into the second half, they’ll fancy a puncher’s chance. That’s the only route here. Stay alive, nick a goal, and hope the home side get restless.
This fixture has been very one-sided for years, and the recent meetings don’t leave Alavés with much comfort. Real Madrid beat them 2-1 in Vitoria in December 2025, won 1-0 away in April 2025, and edged a 3-2 thriller at home in September 2024. Before that came a 5-0 hammering at the Bernabéu in May 2024, and a 1-0 Madrid win in Vitoria in December 2023. Go a little further back and the pattern stays familiar: Madrid usually win, often without a clean sheet, and Alavés usually end up chasing the game.
One detail matters here. Madrid have scored first in every one of the recent head-to-head meetings listed, and that gives the home side a clear edge before kick-off. Once Madrid get ahead in this fixture, Alavés are the ones forced to stretch. That’s rarely a good place to be against a team of this quality.
We’re backing Real Madrid to win at 1/3 here. It’s short, and it should be. Arbeloa’s side are far stronger at home, with 13 league wins from 16 at the Bernabéu and a goal difference of 37-13 on their own ground. Alavés have made a habit of scoring, which is why this doesn’t scream rout, but their away numbers and league position tell you enough. Madrid should have too much attacking power and far more control in the key moments.
The 2-1 correct score feels about right. Madrid have been conceding more often than they’d like, and Alavés have shown they can nick a goal even in tricky away matches. So this isn’t a clean, simple home cruise. It should still land the right way, though. If you want a slightly less aggressive angle, Madrid to win and both teams to score would be the live alternative. But the straight home win is the clear call.
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