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Retrô come into this cup tie after a narrow 1-0 away win at Imperatriz on 24 March, while Ceará were held 1-1 by ABC at home on 25 March. Both teams have been finding ways to stay in games, but neither has been producing long stretches of open football, which is a useful starting point for an under.
Retrô’s recent sequence has been mixed, with three defeats, two wins and a draw across their last six, and most of those results were tight. Their last two Copa do Nordeste outings both finished with only one goal, and even in the league/playoff games they have not been involved in many high-scoring contests. Ceará are even more relevant to the under angle: they are unbeaten in their last six, but five of those matches finished with two goals or fewer, including a 0-0 away draw at São Bernardo and a 1-0 win at Maranhão AC.
The away profile also leans toward caution. Ceará’s league away record in this competition is still blank in terms of goals, and the broader season benchmarks point to lower output from visiting sides than from home sides. Retrô’s xG projection of 1.5 and Ceará’s 0.9 gives a combined figure of 2.4, which sits just below the line, although the 1-1 correct-score call does leave a small amount of tension around the margin.
Another point in favour of a low-scoring match is Ceará’s recent pattern of control without much attacking waste, as shown by the 1-1 draw with ABC and the 0-0 at São Bernardo. Retrô have also spent plenty of time in low-margin games, with their 1-0 win over Imperatriz and 0-1 defeat to Sport Recife in the recent run. Nothing here points strongly to a wide-open game.
My prediction is Under 2.5 Goals at 65/100. Ceará have gone under 2.5 goals in six of their last six matches, Retrô’s recent Copa do Nordeste games have both stayed short of three goals, and the combined xG projection is only 2.4. Even with a possible 1-1 scoreline, this still looks more likely to finish with two goals than three or more.
