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Serbia U19 come into this one with four wins, one draw and one loss from their last six, and that run includes a 2-0 away win over England U19 and a 1-1 draw with Portugal U19 in their most recent outing. They have also found the net in four of those six matches, which keeps their attacking profile useful for a home success. The xG line of 1.7 to 0.9 also points to Serbia having the better of the chances in this fixture.
Poland U19 arrive on the back of a narrow 1-0 defeat to England U19, and that was their second straight game without a win. Their broader recent spell is less reassuring too, with five losses in their last seven competitive outings and no clean sheet in seven. That leaves them vulnerable if Serbia can turn territory into chances at the expected rate.
There is some tension in Poland’s recent results because several of their games have stayed tight, including five straight matches in this competition level finishing with fewer than 2.5 goals. Even so, they have also been first to concede in five of those matches, which is a poor sign against a Serbia side that has already beaten England away and drawn with Portugal away in this elite round. Serbia’s own home numbers are unavailable, but their recent away form still suggests they are comfortable handling strong opposition.
The head-to-head record also leans Serbia’s way, with a 4-2 away win in 2018 and a 2-2 draw in 2023, so Poland have not shown a clear edge in this matchup. Serbia have scored in seven of their last nine, while Poland have gone seven games without a clean sheet, which gives the hosts enough attacking cover to justify the win pick even if the projected 2-1 scoreline is not fully in line with Poland’s recent habit of keeping games relatively low-scoring.
My prediction is Home Win at 17/20. Serbia have the stronger recent results, including the 2-0 win at England and the draw at Portugal, while Poland have lost their last two and are without a clean sheet in seven. Poland’s tendency to concede first in five straight relevant games also suits a home side that should create the better chances, and the xG projection of 1.7 to 0.9 supports Serbia as the likelier winner.
