SSV Ulm 1846 welcome TSV Havelse to the Donaustadion on Saturday evening, 18 April 2026, with both clubs staring at the wrong end of the 3. Liga table and badly needing points. This is not a glamorous top-half meeting. It’s a survival scrap, plain and simple. Ulm sit 18th on 29 points, Havelse just above them in 17th, also on 29, and the margins around the drop zone are as thin as they come.
There’s more riding on this than just three points. Pavel Dotchev’s Ulm need to turn home matches into lifelines, while Samir Ferchichi’s Havelse are trying to prove they can travel well enough to drag themselves clear. The first meeting between the sides this season went Havelse’s way, a 2-1 win on 22 November 2025, so Ulm will feel they’ve got a bit of payback to collect too. That one won’t be forgotten quickly.
Both teams also arrive with form lines that flatter neither defence. Ulm have been giving up goals far too easily, while Havelse have been involved in a steady stream of high-scoring games, for better and worse. When you put those profiles together, you don’t need much imagination to see where the betting value may lie.
SSV Ulm 1846 Form & Analysis
Ulm’s recent run has been messy. They went to Hansa Rostock on 11 April and were beaten 4-1, a game that got away from them after a competitive first half. Emil Holten scored twice, but that was about the only bright spark in a match where Ulm were second best in the key moments and conceded four goals from relatively modest xGA. Before that, they drew 1-1 away at Stuttgart II, which was at least a point on the road, but it didn’t stop the sense that they’ve been treading water.
Their one clean, positive home result in this spell came on 5 April, when they edged SC Verl 1-0 at home. That looked like a proper response after a 3-1 defeat to Ingolstadt and a 1-1 draw at Energie Cottbus. Go back a little further and it gets shakier again: they lost 3-2 at Schweinfurt, a game that summed up their season in a nutshell, namely too open, too easy to hurt, and just not secure enough when matches start stretching. Two games without a win now. Not disastrous, but not nearly enough either.
The home record tells you why this fixture still matters to them. Ulm have 5 wins, 1 draw and 10 defeats at home, with 20 goals scored and 31 conceded. That is not the kind of return that inspires confidence in front of your own crowd. They can score there — 20 goals isn’t nothing — but they’ve also been too generous at the other end. Still, there’s a slight pattern worth respecting: Ulm have been involved in goals at both ends more often than not, and they tend to get dragged into open games rather than slow, careful ones. Their season profile fits that. The problem is that the openness usually favours the opponent.
Pavel Dotchev will want something cleaner here, because this is the kind of match where control matters more than romance. If Ulm start well, they should create chances. If they don’t, the anxiety around the stadium will rise quickly. That’s the risk with a side sitting 18th and carrying a goal difference of 42 scored, 68 conceded overall. They can hurt you, but they usually leave a door open too.
TSV Havelse Form & Analysis
Havelse come into this with a slightly more volatile but also more dangerous recent run. They beat Saarbrücken 2-0 at home on 11 April, and that was a proper lift after a rough spell. Leon Sommer and Lorenzo Paldino did the damage early in the second half, and though the underlying numbers weren’t dominant, they handled the game well enough. Before that, they went to Wehen Wiesbaden and won 4-1 away, which is the sort of result that catches your eye immediately. That was a big away statement. No question.
The flip side is that their defensive record remains all over the place. They lost 3-0 at home to Energie Cottbus, were beaten 5-2 at Regensburg, and earlier fell 3-1 at Waldhof Mannheim. That’s a lot of goals leaking through. A lot. The good news for Ferchichi is that Havelse have the attacking end of the pitch to stay dangerous in nearly any game, which is why even their bad results tend to come with action attached. They’ve scored 49 goals overall, more than Ulm, but they’ve also conceded 73. That tells its own story.
Away from home, Havelse have won only 2, drawn 4 and lost 10, with 24 scored and 38 conceded. That’s not a travel record to admire. Yet it’s also not one that suggests they arrive completely toothless. They do create chances on the road, and they do score on the road. The issue is whether they can keep anyone out. Usually, they can’t. Their last away outing, that 4-1 win at Wiesbaden, was a reminder that when their front play clicks, they’re capable of blowing the script apart. But you wouldn’t bank on that every week.
This is a side that rarely plays dull football. They’ve got the habit of turning matches into shootouts, and with 6 of their last 8 league games going over 2.5 goals, that trend is not hard to see. Mind you, a chaotic team on the road can be dangerous for a total-goals bet both ways — they can smash the over on their own, or they can get dragged into a scrappy grind. But with Havelse, the more natural expectation is still goals. Plenty of them.
Head-to-Head
The recent head-to-head sample is small, but it does matter. Havelse beat Ulm 2-1 when the sides met on 22 November 2025, and that result will give the visitors some belief heading into this return fixture. It was tight enough to suggest these teams aren’t far apart, yet it also showed that Havelse know how to find a way past Ulm.
That meeting fits the broader picture too. Both clubs are porous, both can score, and neither looks comfortable when a match drifts into transition-heavy territory. One game doesn’t define a rivalry, but it does fit the mood here. Expect chances. Expect mistakes. Expect nerves.
We Predict: Over 2.5 Goals
We’re backing Over 2.5 Goals at 1/2 here. It’s short, yes, but it’s still the strongest angle on the board. Ulm’s home matches have been open enough for too long, Havelse have been involved in high-scoring games all spring, and neither defence has shown anything close to reliability. That’s the heart of it. Simple as that.
The xG projection leans into the same direction too, with Ulm at 2.0 and Havelse at 1.4, which points to a game with chances at both ends and enough quality — or at least enough chaos — to land three goals. A 2-1 Ulm win feels about right. Havelse’s away scoring keeps them alive, but their back line gives you very little reason to trust them. If you wanted an alternative, Both Teams to Score has obvious appeal, especially with Ulm’s 9/10 BTTS trend in the wider sample, but Over 2.5 remains the cleaner play.
