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Stuttgart’s side of the bet is the avoidance of defeat, and their home record is strong enough to make that plausible. They are third in the league and have taken 32 points from 13 home matches, winning ten, drawing two and losing only one, with 22 scored and 12 conceded there. Their recent league form is also solid, with three wins and a draw from the last four Bundesliga games, including home victories over RB Leipzig and Wolfsburg.
The BTTS part is easy to see because Dortmund arrive with both strong results and a habit of open games. Niko Kovač’s team have won three straight Bundesliga matches, but five of their last six games overall have seen more than 2.5 goals and both teams have scored in five of those six. Even in the 3-2 win over Hamburger SV on 21 March, Dortmund created heavily with 4.4 xG but still conceded twice, which keeps the door open for Stuttgart to score even if the visitors play well.
Stuttgart’s latest league match also fits this market. They beat Augsburg 5-2 away on 22 March and generated 3.3 xG while allowing 1.3 xGA, so the attack looked sharp but the clean sheet still never felt close. Deniz Undav scored twice in that game, and five Stuttgart goals from 13 shots underlined how dangerous they can be when chances appear.
One head-to-head angle is enough here: Stuttgart are unbeaten in the last seven meetings with Dortmund. The latest clash finished 3-3 in November 2025, and that matters more for this market than trying to call a straight match winner, because it supports the idea that Stuttgart can avoid defeat while still conceding against a Dortmund side with 58 league goals already. The only slight tension is that Dortmund’s away league record is also excellent at seven wins, five draws and one defeat, so the 1X leg is not risk-free.
My prediction is Double Chance 1X & BTTS at 2.12. Stuttgart have lost only once at home in the league all season, Dortmund have seen both teams score in five of their last six matches, and Stuttgart’s last league outing was a 5-2 win that again showed goals at both ends. The recent head-to-head record also leans toward Stuttgart avoiding defeat rather than Dortmund taking all three points.
