Wales have won four of their last six matches, and the home side’s recent qualifying results give the clearest case for a home win. They beat Liechtenstein, Kazakhstan and North Macedonia, and even in defeat they still scored three away to Belgium and two at home to Belgium. The projection also leans their way, with Wales at 2.5 expected goals against Bosnia & Herzegovina’s 1.2.

Bosnia & Herzegovina are not arriving in poor shape, with three wins, two draws and only one loss from their last six, so this is not a soft spot on paper. They drew 1-1 away to Austria on Tuesday and had also drawn 2-2 in Cyprus, which points to a side capable of staying competitive. The issue for the home-win market is that their best results here came against Romania and San Marino, while their tougher game against Austria at home ended in defeat.

Last Tuesday’s 7-1 win over North Macedonia is the strongest single recent Wales pointer. Craig Bellamy’s team produced 3.1 xG, allowed only 0.6 xGA, won the shot count 17-6 and created six big chances, so it was not just a freak scoreline. Harry Wilson’s hat-trick and the spread of other scorers also underlined how much attacking threat Wales carried in that match.

There is one cautionary note from the historical meetings, because Bosnia & Herzegovina are unbeaten across the last three head-to-heads and did not concede in any of them. Still, those games are old and the more relevant current numbers favour Wales, especially with the home side’s xG projection comfortably above two. A 2-1 correct-score call also fits the small tension here: Bosnia can contribute enough to make it awkward, but Wales still have the better win conditions.

My prediction is Home Win at 1.85. Wales have won four of their last six, they are coming off a 7-1 home victory in which they posted 3.05 xG and six big chances, and the match projection has them ahead at 2.5 xG to 1.2. Bosnia & Herzegovina have been competitive, but their only defeat in the last six came against Austria and they have gone five matches without a clean sheet.