AD Os Limianos come into this with a strong home record that fits a home win angle: six wins, three draws and only two defeats in league matches at their own ground, with 21 goals scored and just 11 conceded. They have also won four of their last six overall, so even after the 4-1 setback away to Grupo Desportivo de Bragança last Sunday, their home form remains the cleaner guide here.

CD Ribeira Brava are much harder to trust on their travels. They have managed only one away win all season, with three draws and five defeats, and their away goal difference is 8-19. Their last six league matches have brought five games without a win, and they arrive off a 1-5 home loss to SC Vianense, which does little to steady them before another difficult trip.

The head-to-head picture is not especially dramatic, which is worth noting for a home win bet. The reverse fixture ended 1-1 in Ribeira Brava, so AD Os Limianos do not have a dominant recent result to lean on, but their current home strength is still better than CD Ribeira Brava’s away returns. The xG projection also leans the right way for the hosts at 1.5 to 1.0, even if that suggests a fairly competitive match rather than a straightforward one.

One small caution is that AD Os Limianos were beaten 4-1 last weekend, while CD Ribeira Brava have scored in enough away games to keep the visitors in the picture. Even so, the visitors’ away profile is poor, and they have lost three of their last four while failing to keep a clean sheet in four straight. That combination leaves the home side with the clearer edge in a fixture they should still expect to control more often than not.

My prediction is Home Win at 21/50. AD Os Limianos are third in the home table with six wins from 11 and only two defeats, while CD Ribeira Brava have taken just six points from nine away matches. The visitors have one away win all season, come in winless in five, and have lost three of their last four league games, so the home side’s stronger base should tell despite the 1-1 draw in the reverse meeting.