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AIK head into this Damallsvenskan meeting after losing three of their last four league matches, and the defensive numbers around those games are not encouraging for a home win case. In the most recent reverse fixture on 16 November, they went down 2-1 at home to Norrköping DFK despite only one goal separating the sides on the scoreboard.
Norrköping DFK have been less erratic in the same stretch, with three wins from their last six league matches and a recent away win over AIK already on the record. They have also shown they can travel well enough to edge tight games, which matters here because their away profile is being asked to do the heavy lifting again.
The head-to-head pattern leans their way too, with Norrköping DFK winning three of the last five meetings and scoring first in four of those five. AIK have also gone six straight meetings without a clean sheet against them, so even a competitive home performance may still leave them chasing the game.
The xG outlook points to another close contest, with AIK at 1.2 and Norrköping DFK at 1.6, which fits the idea of the visitors having just enough edge. That said, the margin is not huge, so this is more about backing the side with the better recent away habit and head-to-head edge than expecting a comfortable win.
My prediction is Away Win at 29/20. Norrköping DFK have won three of the last five against AIK, they beat them 2-1 in the most recent meeting in November, and AIK have lost three of their last four league matches. Their away side also looks capable of edging a game like this, even if the projected scoreline suggests it should stay tight.
