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Al-Fayha come in having taken one win, one draw and one defeat from their last three league outings, and their home record is respectable enough to keep them in the contest. They have scored 16 and conceded 14 in 13 home league matches, which points to competitive games rather than one-sided ones. Even so, their recent loss at Neom SC underlined the gap in quality when they face a stronger side.
Al-Ahli arrive with far better overall numbers, sitting third with 65 points and only two league defeats all season. Away from home they have been especially strong, with nine wins, two draws and two losses, plus just seven goals conceded in 13 away league matches. That kind of travel record gives them a clear edge in simply avoiding defeat here.
The head-to-head record leans the same way, with Al-Ahli unbeaten in six meetings and five of those ending in their favour. They have also kept five clean sheets in that stretch, which is a reminder that Al-Fayha have often struggled to make much headway against them. The 1-1 scoreline forecast does leave room for a tighter game, but the historical edge still sits with the visitors.
Recent form also fits the away side’s safety net. Al-Ahli have won five of their last six league matches, including a 3-0 home victory over Damac FC, while Al-Fayha have had more mixed results and have now lost their latest league match. With Al-Ahli producing 54 goals and conceding only 19 in the league, their balance is much better than Al-Fayha’s 34 scored and 42 conceded.
My prediction is X2 at 1/9. Al-Ahli are unbeaten in six straight meetings with Al-Fayha, they have taken nine away league wins already, and their season-long defensive record on the road is excellent with just seven conceded in 13 matches. Al-Fayha’s home numbers are solid, but they do not point strongly enough to a home upset against a side this consistent.
