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Paris Saint-Germain bring the stronger win case into Wednesday evening. They have won five of their last six in all competitions, including both knockout games against Chelsea, while Liverpool are winless in two and have lost three of their last six. The home side’s recent results are also more convincing for a match-result bet: four straight wins since the Monaco defeat, with victories by three goals, three goals, four goals and two goals.
Liverpool still carry some threat, so this is not a risk-free home-win pick. They beat Galatasaray 4-0 at home in this round and the xG projection of 2.0 to 1.3 points to a competitive game rather than a complete mismatch. Even so, their recent away record is a concern for this market, with losses at Manchester City, Brighton and Galatasaray in three of their last four away matches.
The clearest recent performance edge comes from the latest fixtures. Paris Saint-Germain beat Toulouse 3-1 on 3 April and controlled the game on chance quality, posting 1.8 xG to just 0.2 xGA, with a 17-5 shot advantage and only one shot on target allowed. Liverpool’s most recent outing went the other way, a 4-0 FA Cup defeat at Manchester City on 4 April, where they conceded four times and even missed a penalty at 0-4.
There is also one recent head-to-head result that supports the home side’s chances. When these teams met in the Champions League on 11 March 2025, Paris Saint-Germain won 5-1 away at Liverpool. I would not lean too heavily on that alone because the other recent meetings were split, but it does show that this fixture has not looked beyond them.
My prediction is Home Win at 1.70. Paris Saint-Germain have won five of their last six, Liverpool have lost three of their last six and are coming off a 4-0 defeat, and the home side’s projected edge on xG is still clear at about 2.0 to 1.3. Paris Saint-Germain have also won four in a row since their last loss, which is the strongest current result trend tied directly to this market.
