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Al-Ittihad come into this one on the back of a 1-0 home win over Al-Hazem, but their recent league matches have still swung between narrow scorelines and the occasional open game. Their last six across all competitions contain three wins, two draws and one defeat, with only one of those six finishing goalless and two ending at 2-1 or 3-1. At home in the league they have scored 16 and conceded 11 in 13 matches, a split that leaves room for a more active total than a straight low-scoring outlook.
Neom SC also arrive with a mixed scoring profile. They beat Al-Fayha 1-0 in their most recent league outing, but before that they drew 2-2 with Al-Taawoun and have shown they can both score and concede on the road, with 16 goals scored and 15 shipped away from home. That away record is more balanced than dominant, yet it does not point to a side that routinely shuts games down, especially against a home team that has already produced 27 league points at its own ground.
There is a useful head-to-head angle as well: Al-Ittihad won 3-1 in the reverse fixture on 31 December 2025. Al-Ittihad have also scored first in five of their last six league games, which matters here because an early home lead would suit an open second half rather than a cautious finish. Even so, the xG projection of 1.2 to 1.2 does leave a small tension with a goals line above 2.5, so this is not a perfect over on paper.
My prediction is Over 2.5 Goals at 67/100. Al-Ittihad’s home league numbers are capable of supporting a higher total, Neom have been involved in both 2-2 and 1-1 type games away from home, and the reverse meeting finished 3-1. The market only needs three goals, and both sides have enough recent scoring output to get there even if the xG projection is fairly modest.
The safer angle is still the goal line rather than a side, because neither team has been especially dominant across the full season and both have conceded regularly enough to keep the match alive. Al-Ittihad’s home record has produced 27 points with 11 conceded, while Neom’s away matches average 15 goals against in 13 trips, which leaves scope for at least one goal at each end.
