Alebrijes de Oaxaca arrive with a mixed recent record, but their home results have carried enough threat to keep this a live contest for the hosts. They have won two of their last three at home, scoring three against CD Tapatío and three against Dorados de Sinaloa, while only a 0-0 with Tlaxcala broke up that run.

Leones Negros have not looked like a side ready to shut teams out on the road. They have gone nine matches without a win overall, and in their last four they have failed to keep a clean sheet every time, conceding one to Dorados, three to Mineros, and three to Club Atletico La Paz. That kind of away fragility is a useful sign for a home result, especially when they are also coming in after a 1-3 defeat on 22 March.

The scoring profile points more towards the hosts than towards a cagey draw. Alebrijes have found the net in six of their last seven league matches, and the head-to-head at Leones Negros in October ended 1-0 to Alebrijes. Even so, the most recent meetings between these sides have not always been straightforward, with a 3-2 away win for Leones Negros in March 2025 and a 2-2 draw in September 2024 showing that the fixture can stay tight.

There is still a small tension with the projected 2-1 scoreline because Leones Negros have managed to score in several recent games, but their overall run is poor and their away resistance looks thin. Alebrijes also come into this with the better league position, the better points return, and a stronger recent home output, while the xG projection of 1.5 to 1.2 nudges toward a home edge rather than a stalemate.

My prediction is Home Win at 1/1. Alebrijes have taken two home wins from their last three at home, while Leones Negros are winless in nine and have conceded in four straight. The visitors have also lost their most recent match and have just one league win all season, which leaves them vulnerable if Alebrijes start fast. Head-to-head is not one-sided, but the current form and the home scoring record are enough to lean toward the hosts.