Prediction (no JavaScript):

Aubagne go into Friday evening with only one win in their last seven league games, but that recent slump has not completely erased their stronger home profile. They have taken 12 of their 29 points at home, with just two home wins, six draws and four defeats, and that kind of record keeps them competitive in this fixture even when their form is patchy.

Châteauroux arrive with a worse season total and a poor overall return of four wins, 11 draws and 10 losses, yet their away numbers are more stubborn than their league position suggests. They have drawn seven of 12 league trips and conceded exactly 14 goals on the road, so they are not often easy to blow away, even if their margin for error is thin.

The recent meeting history still leans Aubagne’s way, with three straight head-to-head wins and Châteauroux failing to keep a clean sheet in each of those games. Aubagne also tend to have more life in home matches than their overall run implies, while Châteauroux’s last six league outings have brought only one victory and four defeats, which is hardly the profile of a side ready to control a difficult away day.

There is a small tension here because Aubagne’s latest league results have been poor and Châteauroux just scored three in their win over US Concarneau on 27 March. Even so, Aubagne’s home record, Châteauroux’s draw-heavy away split, and the direct history between the sides still point more toward the hosts edging a tight contest than toward a comfortable away response.

My prediction is Home Win at 145/100. Aubagne have the better home record, Châteauroux have only two away wins all season, and the visitors have drawn seven of their 12 away league matches, which leaves them vulnerable to a narrow defeat. Aubagne also have the stronger head-to-head edge, winning the last three meetings, including two high-scoring home or away results, so a 2-1 type outcome fits the market even if neither side arrives in top form.