Audax Italiano arrive with three wins from their last four, including a 3-1 home victory over Deportes La Serena on 26 March and an away win at Unión La Calera on 21 March, so they are not short of confidence. Universidad de Chile, though, have dropped points in two of their last three and come into this trip off a 0-1 home loss to Unión La Calera on 24 March. The recent rhythm is a touch uneven for both sides, which is why a tight contest is still very much in play.
What matters most for this pick is that Universidad de Chile have been able to edge away games, winning 1-0 at Coquimbo Unido and 1-0 at Colo-Colo in their recent league trips. Audax Italiano have also mixed solid results with the odd setback at home, and their 3-1 win over Deportes La Serena is a reminder that they can open games up. Still, this is not a fixture that has usually produced clear home control, so the visitors have enough recent evidence to justify the selection.
The head-to-head record also leans toward a cautious away outlook. Audax Italiano have not lost in four straight meetings with Universidad de Chile, and the most recent clash in January finished 0-0. That does not make the away side a certainty, but it does show these games can be tight and that the visitors are rarely overwhelmed in this matchup.
There is a small tension here because Audax Italiano have the better recent scoring burst, while the xG projection is only 0.9 to 0.9. Even so, Universidad de Chile’s habit of getting narrow away wins, plus their stronger away results in March, gives the away side the edge over an opponent who has also shown they can be kept in check.
My prediction is Away Win at 19/20. Universidad de Chile have won two of their last three away matches, both by 1-0 margins, and that kind of controlled travelling form fits this market well. Audax Italiano have picked up results of their own, but the January meeting ended level and the overall head-to-head has been tight enough to allow the visitors to nick it.
