Austria U19 come in with mixed but competitive recent form, taking four points from their last two Elite round games after drawing 1-1 away to Greece U19 and losing 2-1 at home to Denmark U19. Before that, they beat Iceland U19 3-1 and Hungary U19 3-1, so there has been enough attacking output to keep games open, but not enough control to shut opponents down.

Sweden U19 arrive after a 2-2 draw away to Germany U19, a result that underlined their ability to compete in a higher-tempo match and find goals on the road. They have also gone four games without a loss in the sampled record, while Austria’s recent run has included just one clean sheet in their last three, which leaves room for Sweden to contribute again.

The scoring picture leans toward both teams finding the net rather than a cagey contest. Austria have seen both teams score in seven of their last nine, and they have gone over 2.5 goals in seven of nine as well, while Sweden’s 2-2 with Germany fits that same pattern of open play. Austria’s 1-1 with Greece and their 1.3 expected goals against Sweden’s 1.8 also point to a match where chances should come at both ends.

There is a slight tension for Austria because they have a strong habit of scoring first, doing so in eight of their last nine, and they did beat Sweden 3-0 in a qualifier back in 2013. Even so, Sweden’s current resilience is harder to ignore, and their recent away draw with Germany shows they are capable of handling pressure and staying in the game long enough to turn it.

My prediction is Away Win at 17/10. Sweden’s recent draw away to Germany came with two goals scored, which fits their 1.8 xG projection here, and Austria’s defensive record has been uneven with just one clean sheet in their last three. The 1-2 correct score also sits well with Austria’s habit of keeping matches competitive while still conceding chances, so the away side looks the sharper call at the prices.