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AZ Alkmaar return to the AFAS Stadion on Thursday evening needing a proper response to a brutal first leg against Shakhtar Donetsk in the UEFA Conference League knockout phase. The Dutch side were swept aside 3-0 in Donetsk last week, a result that leaves Leeroy Echteld’s men with a mountain to climb if they want to stay alive in the tie. There’s no table pressure here, no league position to hide behind. It’s all about the knockout context now, and AZ need a performance with edge, control and a lot more conviction in both boxes.
Shakhtar arrive in the Netherlands with a three-goal cushion and a very different mood around Arda Turan’s team. They’ve done the hard part already, and another disciplined away display would finish the job. That said, they’re not waltzing into this second leg without a few warning signs. Their league trip to LNZ Cherkasy ended 2-2 on 13 April, and while the result kept their domestic momentum ticking over, it was hardly the sort of shut-it-down outing you’d want before a European away leg. Still, they’ve got the buffer, and that changes everything.
AZ need goals. That’s the simple version. Shakhtar don’t need to dominate the ball or force the issue; they just need to avoid a messy, open game turning into a panic. And with AZ’s home numbers generally leaning towards entertainment rather than caution, there’s a decent chance this one has a bit of bite to it.
AZ have bounced around between sharp and sloppy over their last six, and the frustration is that the good stuff hasn’t always arrived in the right competition. Their most recent outing was a tidy 3-0 home win over SC Heerenveen on 12 April, a game they controlled from the opening minutes. Sven Mijnans had them flying with two early goals, and Troy Parrott added a late third. The xG figures were strong too, 1.82 to 0.65, with AZ racking up 22 shots and forcing Heerenveen into a miserable afternoon. That was the response they needed after the first-leg defeat.
Before that, though, came the real damage. AZ were beaten 3-0 by Shakhtar in Donetsk on 9 April, a result that exposed how quickly their European hopes can wobble when they lose structure. The trip to FC Groningen in late March was another damaging away day, finishing 3-0 against them as well, and that’s been the thread running through the rough patches: away from home, they’ve been vulnerable, and in Europe they’ve had to chase games more often than they’d like. Their excellent 4-0 home win over Heracles and the 4-0 away win over Sparta Praha show the ceiling is high. The problem is consistency. One week they look fluent and ruthless. The next, they’re chasing shadows.
At home, though, AZ have usually been far more convincing. Their ground this season has brought wins, goals and a steady stream of attacking pressure, with the side averaging more than 1.6 goals per match in home games and creating enough chances to keep opponents honest. They’ve also been a front-foot team in their own stadium, with AZ regularly getting on the scoresheet early and forcing the tempo. A short, useful streak stands out too: they’ve gone over 2.5 goals in eight of their last nine, which tells you what sort of game they tend to produce. That doesn’t guarantee a shootout on Thursday. It does mean they won’t sit back and accept their fate. They’ll come forward.
The issue is the other end. AZ’s home games can turn loose quickly if they’re forced to overcommit, and against a side like Shakhtar — who’ve already shown they can punish them — that’s a dangerous place to be. They’ll need balance, but balance is hard to find when you’re three down on aggregate. That’s the trap. Go too cautious and the tie dies. Go too wild and you get picked off.
Shakhtar’s recent form has been solid enough to trust, even if it hasn’t always been elegant. The 2-2 draw away to LNZ Cherkasy on 13 April was a decent recovery from a hectic first leg, though the match itself was a bit strange. They scored twice through own goals, then had to ride out the pressure after Eguinaldo and Mark Assinor got on the sheet. It wasn’t a clean performance, but it did keep them unbeaten in their last three. That matters. Winning a tie isn’t only about flashy football. Sometimes it’s about avoiding the wobble.
The first leg was the real statement. A 3-0 home win over AZ on 9 April gave them complete control of this knockout round, and they earned it with direct attacking play and a ruthless edge. Before that, they beat Rukh Lviv 3-0 in the league, which continued a strong run at home, and they’ve generally looked comfortable when they’re able to dictate rhythm. The one real blot in this stretch was the 2-1 home loss to Lech Poznań on 19 March, a result that reminded them European ties can bite back if they drop the level even slightly. Still, they responded well away at Lech in the first meeting, winning 3-1, and that away result may end up mattering just as much as the scoreline itself.
On the road, Shakhtar have been more reliable than most teams at this stage of the competition. They’ve scored away from home in Europe, they’ve carried enough threat to hurt opponents on transitions, and they don’t seem rattled when the atmosphere gets noisy. Their broader attacking numbers are healthy too, with a knack for finding the net in open games and a record of scoring more than 2.5 goals in five of their last six. That’s not a side just hanging on. They’ll look to break again.
There is, though, a small question about their defensive control away from home. The draw at LNZ Cherkasy saw them concede twice, and if AZ start fast, the away side will need to manage the first 20 minutes carefully. Let this turn into a frantic end-to-end game and the second leg gets awkward. Give AZ hope and the Dutch side will make a noise. Shakhtar know that. They don’t need to win the night. They only need to survive it with their aggregate lead intact.
This second leg follows directly from last week’s first meeting, when Shakhtar beat AZ 3-0 in Donetsk on 9 April. That result has already done the heavy lifting in the tie and gives Arda Turan’s side a major advantage coming into the return in the Netherlands.
There’s one other meeting in the record, a 3-3 friendly draw in July 2023. It doesn’t tell us much about the knockout context, but it does hint that these two can produce goals when they’re not under tournament pressure. Thursday feels more serious than that, though. Much more serious.
Both Teams To Score at 8/13 looks the right play here. AZ have too much home attacking intent to be dismissed, and they simply have to chase the game at some point. That alone should drag Shakhtar into more open territory than they’d like. The Ukrainians have scored in plenty of recent outings, including the 3-0 first-leg win and the 2-2 draw at LNZ Cherkasy, so expecting them to nick one on the counter or from a set-piece doesn’t feel like a stretch at all.
The 1-1 scoreline fits the shape of the tie. AZ should create enough to break through at home, but Shakhtar’s cushion gives them room to stay patient and professional rather than chasing a second big win. If you want a livelier angle, Over 2.5 Goals has some appeal too, though BTTS feels cleaner and less exposed to game-state chaos. AZ will push. Shakhtar will have chances. One goal each feels the most natural outcome.
