Belgium U19 come into this one after a lively 3-2 win over Israel U19 and a 1-1 draw with Serbia U19, so they have at least kept themselves in games and found the net regularly. Even the defeat to Norway U19 was only by two goals, which suggests they are competitive but not especially secure at the back. That matters here because a home side that can score but also concede should leave Denmark with chances to take control.

Denmark U19 have the more convincing profile for an away result. They responded to the 0-3 loss to Romania U19 with a 6-0 win over San Marino U19, and earlier in the summer they beat Austria U19 away 2-1 and Spain U19 are the only side to have shut them out in that run. A side that has twice won away in the recent sample and has more goals in its profile than Belgium look well placed to edge a tight group game.

The one head-to-head note also leans away from a home victory, with Belgium U19 and Denmark U19 drawing 1-1 in their only listed meeting. Belgium’s broader trend of eight of nine games with both teams scoring shows they are often involved in open contests, while Denmark’s recent results include several high-scoring wins. Belgium can make this awkward, but the balance still points to the visitors having the stronger match-winning habit.

Belgium’s home game against Israel ended 3-2, and their last three listed matches have produced six goals in total, so they are rarely dull. Denmark’s recent results are more extreme, ranging from a 6-0 win to a 0-3 defeat, which fits a side capable of pushing past a hesitant defence. The xG projection of 1.2 for Belgium and 1.6 for Denmark also leaves the visitors with a slight edge, though it is not a huge one.

My prediction is Away Win at 12/10. Denmark U19 have already won away against Austria U19 and have the stronger scoring ceiling in this sample, while Belgium U19 have only one win from their last three and have conceded in most of their recent games. The draw with Serbia U19 and the 1-1 head-to-head add a small warning, but Denmark still look the likelier side to take all three points.