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Birmingham City come into Friday evening on a mixed run of one win, one draw and four defeats from their last six Championship matches, but their home record is much stronger than their overall league position suggests. At St Andrew’s they have lost only twice in 19 league games, and the goals against column there is 19, which is a solid base for a clean-sheet angle.
Blackburn Rovers have been less convincing in attack, with only 36 league goals all season and just one goal in their last three league matches combined. Their most recent outing was a 0-0 home draw with Middlesbrough, where they managed only five shots and one effort on target, while their away record of seven wins, three draws and nine defeats shows they are not easy to trust for a breakthrough on the road.
The recent head-to-head also gives some support to a low-scoring game for one side, as Blackburn have failed to score in four of the last five meetings between the clubs. Birmingham’s own recent home results fit that theme too, with a 1-0 win over Queens Park Rangers and a 1-1 draw with Sheffield United in their two latest league games at home, while the only awkward note is that the projected 1-1 scoreline leaves a narrow path for both sides to score.
Birmingham’s underlying numbers at home are enough to keep the pressure on Blackburn, whose last match produced an xG of just 0.3 and who have struggled to create clear chances away from home. Birmingham’s 1-0 loss at Derby County was poor going forward, but that was away from home, and their home defensive record still points more toward restricting the visitors than getting dragged into an open contest.
My prediction is BTTS - No at 73/100. Blackburn have failed to score in four of the last five head-to-head meetings, their latest league match produced only 0.3 xG, and Birmingham have conceded just 19 home league goals all season. Birmingham’s strong home defence and Blackburn’s modest away scoring record both fit a game where at least one side is likely to blank.
