Birmingham City welcome Wrexham to St Andrew’s on Sunday afternoon with plenty on the line for both sides, even if their targets are slightly different. Chris Davies’ team are still looking over their shoulder in 17th place, while Phil Parkinson’s Wrexham arrive in seventh and right in the thick of the play-off chase. There’s a proper Championship feel to this one: one side trying to steady itself and the other trying to keep climbing.
For Birmingham, this is about stopping a worrying slide from becoming something nastier. They’ve won just once in their last six and have slipped to four games without a victory. Wrexham, meanwhile, have been a livelier watch all season and remain firmly in the hunt, but a 5-1 home thumping by Southampton last time out was a sharp reminder that they’re still capable of collapsing when the game gets away from them. That’s the mood around this one. Plenty of goals have been a feature of both teams’ seasons, and the head-to-head meetings have hardly been cagey either.
There’s also a tidy little subplot from their recent history. The sides drew 1-1 at Wrexham earlier this season, after another 1-1 draw in League One in January 2025, while Birmingham won 3-1 in Birmingham back in September 2024. Nothing suggests either camp owns the other. If anything, these games have settled into a pattern of tension, chances and at least one breakthrough for each side.
Birmingham City Form & Analysis
Birmingham’s recent run has been a grind rather than a disaster, but the wins have dried up at exactly the wrong time. They went to Ipswich Town on 6 April and lost 2-1, a game that felt familiar in the worst way: competitive enough for spells, but not sharp enough when it mattered. Before that came a 1-0 home defeat to Blackburn Rovers, then a narrow 1-0 reverse away to Derby County. They did at least hold Sheffield United to a 1-1 draw at home in mid-March, yet that was sandwiched around a 1-0 win over Queens Park Rangers and another tight defeat away at Charlton Athletic. It’s been a sequence full of close calls, not much margin, and no real momentum.
That lack of momentum is the big issue. Birmingham have gone four matches without a win, and the feel of the side is one of a team stuck somewhere between control and caution. At St Andrew’s, though, they’ve been far stronger than their league position suggests. Their home record reads nine wins, eight draws and only three defeats, with 33 goals scored and just 20 conceded. That’s a decent platform. Not flashy, but solid enough to keep them in games. They’re not getting cut open at home very often, and that matters in a contest like this.
Still, the attacking edge isn’t quite biting like it should. Birmingham have scored 49 league goals overall, which is respectable rather than frightening, and their recent home results reflect that. A 1-0 win over QPR, a 1-1 draw with Sheffield United, then a 0-1 loss to Blackburn — there’s not a lot of freedom in that sequence. They can defend. They can compete. But if they don’t find an early rhythm, they often end up in low-margin territory. That’s fine when you’re protecting a lead. Less so when you need one.
Wrexham Form & Analysis
Wrexham’s last six have been a proper Championship mixed bag. They beat Swansea City 2-0 at home on 13 March, then lost 2-1 away to Hull City, which felt like a missed chance. The next away trip brought something better: a 2-1 win at Sheffield United on 21 March, one of those results that says a lot about a team’s belief. After that, though, they were held 2-2 by West Bromwich Albion and then flattened 5-1 at home by Southampton. That’s the problem with Wrexham at the moment. They can look dangerous and direct one week, then suddenly porous the next. No middle ground.
Away from home, though, they’ve been a lot more competitive than the home collapse against Southampton suggests. Their away record is strong: eight wins, seven draws and five defeats, with 26 scored and 23 conceded. That’s the sort of road record that keeps a promotion push alive. They don’t just survive on their travels. They tend to make a game of it. Can they keep that going in Birmingham? That’s the question. The answer probably decides a lot about the night.
The recent away draw at West Brom and that win at Sheffield United both point to the same thing — Wrexham aren’t overawed on the road, and they’ve got enough about them to score in tough venues. The flip side is just as obvious. They’ve also conceded in four of their last six, and that 5-1 loss to Southampton was ugly. The xG split from that game wasn’t kind either: 1.25 for Wrexham against 2.35 for Southampton. They had 11 shots, only two on target, and were beaten badly in the big chances count. When Wrexham lose their shape, they can unravel fast. That’s been part of their story all season.
The overall numbers still keep them in the promotion conversation, though. Seventh with 64 points, 63 goals scored and 58 conceded tells you plenty. They’re dangerous enough to hurt teams, but not watertight enough to shut them out. That balance is why their matches often trend toward goals. It’s also why you wouldn’t be shocked if they score here and still don’t win.
Head-to-Head
These two haven’t exactly been strangers in recent seasons, and the meetings have been lively rather than one-sided. Wrexham and Birmingham drew 1-1 at Wrexham on 3 October 2025, after another 1-1 draw in League One on 23 January 2025. Go back a little further and Birmingham claimed a 3-1 home win in September 2024.
The pattern is pretty clear. Birmingham haven’t lost to Wrexham in the last three meetings, but both teams have scored in each of them. That little trend matters here. It fits the way both clubs are shaping up again this season.
We Predict: Both Teams To Score
Both Teams To Score at 4/6 looks the right call here. Birmingham are stubborn enough at home to make life awkward, but not sharp enough to keep opponents out for long. Wrexham, for all their inconsistency, have scored in enough away games to trust them to nick one. They’ve also seen both teams score in six of their last seven, which fits the profile neatly.
The 1-1 correct score feels the cleanest read. Birmingham’s home solidity and Wrexham’s away threat point to a fairly even game, and neither side looks reliable enough to control 90 minutes from start to finish. If you want a second angle, Wrexham over 0.5 team goals has a decent case too. But the main shout is BTTS. It’s a better fit than trying to call a winner in a match that should stay tight.
