Bogotá FC come into this one needing a response after losing 2-0 at home to Deportes Quindío, a match in which they created only 0.88 xG and failed to make their pressure count. Even so, their season numbers at home are not hopeless: four goals scored and seven conceded across six home league games is modest, but it does point to matches that stay competitive rather than one-sided.
Real Cundinamarca arrive with a longer run without a win, having drawn four and lost one in their last five league outings before the 2-2 with Barranquilla FC. Their away record is still winless, with three draws and three defeats, and only three away goals scored in six trips, so they have struggled to turn visits into points. That profile is important here because it gives Bogotá a clearer edge in a game where the visitors have not shown much away authority.
The head-to-head record also leans Bogotá’s way in the sense that they have scored in four straight meetings without a clean sheet, while the recent pair of clashes in Bogotá finished 2-2 and 2-1. That does not scream a banker, but it does show the home side can hurt this opponent and that Real Cundinamarca are usually competitive enough to keep the scoreline alive.
There is a small tension with the projected 2-1 scoreline, because Bogotá’s recent home output has been limited and their last home defeat to Deportes Quindío was unusually flat. Still, Real Cundinamarca’s away struggles, their winless run on the road, and Bogotá’s stronger overall position make the home side the more reliable choice in a close Primera B contest.
My prediction is Home Win at 69/50. Bogotá have the better league record, Real Cundinamarca are winless away with three draws and three losses, and the visitors have managed only three away goals all season. Bogotá have also taken points in this matchup more often at home than the current away form of Cundinamarca suggests, even if a narrow margin looks more likely than a comfortable one.
