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Brisbane Roar are the side to oppose for an away-win pick. They are winless in eight league matches, with four draws and four defeats in that spell, and their home record is only three wins from 11. Sydney FC sit fifth to Brisbane’s tenth, and the points gap is clear at 33 against 24.
Sydney FC do bring a slight caution because they have lost their last two league games and are three matches without a win. Even so, their away numbers are strong enough for this market: five wins from 11 road matches is the third-best away return in the division, while Brisbane have lost five of 11 at home. The earlier meeting on 21 February also went Sydney’s way, 1-0.
The chance-quality projection still leans toward the visitors. Brisbane are forecast at only 0.8 xG, while Sydney are projected at 1.5 xG, which fits the 1-2 correct-score call and gives Sydney the clearer route to all three points. Brisbane’s season goal difference of 22 scored and 29 conceded also points to a side that has struggled to turn matches in their favour.
There is one concern for an away-win ticket: Sydney’s latest home defeat to Newcastle came despite creating 2.0 xG and having 19 shots, but they also allowed 2.5 xGA and four big chances, so they were too open. Brisbane’s most recent loss to Wellington was less encouraging from a results angle, because it extended their no-win run and left them with another home defeat under Michael Valkanis.
My prediction is Away Win at 2.10. Brisbane are winless in eight league games, they have already lost to Sydney FC once this season, and Sydney’s away record of five wins from 11 is much stronger than Brisbane’s home return of three wins from 11. The xG split of 0.8 to 1.5 also gives the visitors the stronger expectation to win rather than just avoid defeat.
