Brooklyn FC come into this one after losing 0-2 at home to Carolina Ascent, a result that extended a patchy run of just one win in their last six league matches. They have also struggled to protect their own box, with 17 goals conceded in 11 home games, and their overall home record of three wins, three draws and five losses does not point to much control against one of the division’s top sides.

Lexington SC arrive with far better numbers, sitting second in the table and unbeaten away from home in league play, with three wins and six draws from nine trips. That away record matters for a match result market, because they have found ways to avoid defeat on the road even when games have been tight, and their overall return of only two league losses all season underlines how hard they are to beat.

Recent meetings also lean Lexington’s way. They have beaten Brooklyn in four of the last six head-to-heads and are unbeaten in the last four, while Brooklyn have failed to score in three of those four Lexington clean sheets. The only slight caution is that Lexington’s away games have produced a fair share of draws, so the visitors are not usually a free-flowing away force.

Brooklyn’s latest xG profile is another concern for the hosts, while Lexington’s 2-0 win over Fort Lauderdale United on 21 March came from 24 shots and nine on target, a solid attacking display even if their finishing has not always been ruthless away from home. With the visitors averaging 1.5 expected goals to Brooklyn’s 0.9 in the projection, the balance still sits with the stronger side rather than the home team trying to spring an upset.

My prediction is Away Win at 21/20. Lexington are unbeaten away in the league, they have three wins and six draws from nine away matches, and they have not lost any of the last four meetings with Brooklyn. Brooklyn have also managed only one win in their last six league matches, while Lexington’s overall record of just two defeats in 20 games is exactly the sort of profile that supports a straight away result.