Central Coast Mariners come into this one with four wins from their last six in the league, but the home side have still been conceding too often to feel secure in a straight home result case. They beat Wellington Phoenix 2-1 on 25 March, yet that followed a 0-0 away draw at Perth Glory and they have also allowed goals in their other recent home matches, which keeps the door open for Canberra.

Canberra United’s recent away form is more mixed, with wins in two of their last four on the road, but their attacking numbers are good enough to travel. They scored three against Adelaide United in a 3-2 win on 22 March and have found the net in several of their away fixtures, while the wider season figures also point to a side that carries more punch going forward than their opponents.

The head-to-head record also leans towards Canberra avoiding defeat if this turns into a tight game, because the Mariners have not beaten them in the last six meetings. Those clashes have often been close, with five of the last six decided by a single goal or ending level, and the most recent meeting finished 1-1 in December. Even so, the recent xG edge belongs to Canberra, who generated 3.3 against Adelaide and have the stronger overall goal difference.

There is a slight tension with the away-win angle because Central Coast are unbeaten in two and have been decent at home this season, but Canberra’s output is the more convincing piece. The Mariners have conceded 13 goals in eight home games, while Canberra’s away record includes three wins and 11 goals scored, so the visitors arrive with a credible route to three points rather than just a draw.

My prediction is Away Win at 11/10. Canberra United have the better league position, the stronger goal difference, and the sharper recent attacking performance, including 3.3 xG in the 3-2 win over Adelaide United. Central Coast have been hard to keep out, but they have also conceded in most of their recent home games, and Canberra have already taken points from this fixture in the last six meetings more often than not.