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Cherno More Varna welcome FC CSKA 1948 Sofia to the Parva Liga on Wednesday evening with the table giving this game real weight. The hosts sit sixth on 44 points, still trying to finish the regular campaign with momentum and protect their place in the upper reaches. The visitors are third on 56 points and have a far clearer prize in sight: keep winning and they stay firmly in the hunt for the best possible playoff position and the European places that come with it.
There’s also a neat contrast here. Cherno More have been awkward, stubborn and often low-scoring, but they’ve lost a bit of sharpness at the wrong time. CSKA 1948, by comparison, have looked more forceful overall and travel with the stronger body of work across the season. Still, this fixture hasn’t been kind to them. That matters, even if only a little. Cherno More tend to drag opponents into their kind of game, and if Ilian Iliev’s side can do that again, the visitors won’t get an easy night by the sea.
Cherno More’s recent run has been a strange mix of resilience and warning signs. Their latest result, a 0-0 draw away at Ludogorets on 9 April, looks excellent on paper. Dig a little deeper and it was pure resistance football: just two shots, none on target, and an xG of 0.01 against 1.43 conceded. They survived rather than competed. Sometimes that’s admirable. Sometimes it tells you trouble is brewing.
Before that came the sort of defeat that will have irritated Iliev far more — a 3-1 home loss to Slavia Sofia on 5 April. That broke up what had been a useful patch. Cherno More had beaten PFK Montana 1921 1-0 at home on 15 March, then won 3-0 away to Septemvri Sofia on 7 March, with a 0-0 home draw against Arda Kardzhali before those results. In between came a 2-1 loss away to Levski Sofia on 21 March, a game that underlined a broader issue: against stronger or more aggressive opponents, they can be pushed back and made to chase. Three games now without a win. That’s the cold fact.
At home, their record is decent without being intimidating: five wins, six draws and three defeats from 14 league games, with 15 goals scored and 10 conceded. You can see the pattern straight away. They don’t give away much at their ground, but they don’t blow teams away either. Just over a goal a game scored at home, and not even one conceded on average. Tight margins. Tight games. That’s been the story of their season.
The strength is obvious enough. Cherno More are organised, they don’t collapse often, and even at Ludogorets they found a way to stay alive when the match flow was against them. The weakness is attacking punch. Thirty-three goals in 29 league games is not a return that scares top-three opponents, and that microscopic attacking output in the last match only sharpened the point. If they fall behind here, you’d worry about their ability to open up a game against a side with more pace and thrust.
CSKA 1948 arrive in the healthier mood. Their 1-0 home win over Botev Vratsa on 10 April wasn’t spectacular on the scoreboard, but the performance was. They posted 21 shots to four, won the xG battle 2.78 to 0.49, and scored through Mamadou Diallo after Atanas Iliev’s assist despite playing a long spell with 10 men after Iliya Yurukov’s second yellow in the 28th minute. That sort of win tells you plenty. They had control, they had territory, and they found a way even when the match got awkward.
The previous five games show why they’re third. They beat Lokomotiv Sofia 3-2 at home on 21 March, won 2-1 away at Spartak Varna on 14 March, drew 0-0 at home with Botev Plovdiv on 8 March, and absolutely hammered Lokomotiv Plovdiv 5-0 away on 5 March. The one blemish was the 3-0 defeat at Ludogorets on 5 April, and plenty of sides leave that ground looking second best. Strip that out and the recent trend is pretty clear: this team usually scores, usually asks questions, and is far more comfortable than most Bulgarian sides when playing away from home.
That away record jumps off the page. Eight wins, two draws and four defeats on the road, with 21 goals scored and 14 conceded. Third-best away record in the division. That’s serious form, not a quirk. They’ve won at Spartak Varna, put five past Lokomotiv Plovdiv away, and generally shown they don’t need home comfort to impose themselves. Can they be exposed defensively? Yes. Thirty-one goals conceded overall is a fair bit more than Cherno More’s 22. But they bring greater attacking intent and, frankly, more ambition.
That’s why this matchup is so good. CSKA 1948 are the better side over the season, but they don’t always keep things calm. They can leave gaps. They can get dragged into exchanges. The red card against Botev Vratsa didn’t cost them, yet it was another reminder that clean control doesn’t always last. Against a Cherno More side that prefers low-event football, the visitors need to avoid letting frustration creep in.
There’s no getting around the historical angle: Cherno More have had the better of this fixture for a while. They won 1-0 away at CSKA 1948 in November, crushed them 4-0 away in November 2024, drew 0-0 in Varna in July 2024, and beat them 2-1 at home in March 2024. In fact, Cherno More are unbeaten in the last 12 meetings between the sides from the available records. That’s a real hoodoo.
Mind you, there’s a split inside that trend. Cherno More have often avoided defeat, but games in Varna haven’t always turned wild. Two of the last four meetings on this ground finished 0-0 and 1-1, while the hosts did win 2-1 in the other recent home meeting listed. So yes, history says Cherno More know how to handle this opponent. It doesn’t say CSKA 1948 will be blown away.
Both Teams To Score at 1.73 is the standout play here. The projected scoreline of 2-1 fits it neatly, and while Cherno More aren’t exactly free-scoring, this matchup feels more open than their last few results suggest. CSKA 1948 carry the stronger attacking threat, especially away from home, and their own defence isn’t watertight enough to trust for a shutout against a home side that usually keeps games alive.
There is some tension in the numbers, no doubt. The xG projection sits at 1.05 for Cherno More and 1.20 for CSKA 1948, so this isn’t screaming chaos. Still, it doesn’t need chaos. It only needs one goal each, and that looks very achievable given the visitors’ away attacking record and Cherno More’s habit of staying competitive at home even when they’re not dominant. We’re backing goals at both ends, with a 2-1 away win the likeliest finish.
If you want a secondary angle, CSKA 1948 in the draw-no-bet space would have appeal given their away record and stronger league position. The problem is the head-to-head history — and that’s enough to keep the main focus on both teams scoring rather than the match result itself.
