China U23 come into this friendly with a mixed but competitive recent run, and the key point for a home win is that they have still avoided defeat in four of their last six matches. Their most recent outing finished 2-2 against Thailand U23 in China, while earlier this year they beat Australia U23 and Vietnam U23, so they have shown they can handle games of this level when they get control of them.

The scoring profile is not especially explosive, which is worth noting because the projected 2-1 scoreline leans on China edging a tight match rather than running away with it. Their last six have included two goalless draws, a 1-0 win, a 3-0 win, a 2-2 draw and a 0-4 loss, so the overall picture is a side that can keep things close at home but is not always secure at the back.

North Korea U23 bring little recent form data into this fixture, so there is more uncertainty on their side than China’s. The only head-to-head in the database is a 3-0 North Korea U23 win over China U23 in 2014, but that is a very old reference point and not enough to outweigh the more current evidence from China’s recent home games and tournament results.

There is a small tension with the model’s 0.9 expected goals for China, because that is not a huge attacking projection for a home win. Even so, North Korea’s lack of available match data, plus the fact that China have already put together wins against Australia U23 and Vietnam U23 and stayed unbeaten in four of their last six, gives the home side the steadier profile for this market.

My prediction is Home Win at 6/5. China U23 have avoided defeat in four of their last six matches, they have two wins in that stretch, and their recent home draw with Thailand U23 does not look like a collapse. North Korea U23 have no recent match data here, which adds uncertainty, but China’s more proven form and the modest 0.9 xG projection still leave them best placed to edge it.