Chacarita come into this one after losing three of their last four league matches, but their home outings have still been competitive enough to keep scoring expectations modest. The 0-1 defeat to Atlético de Rafaela on 22 March came from a game with just 0.22 xG and no big chances, while their 3-1 home win over Gimnasia Jujuy earlier in February remains their clearest reminder that they can push matches beyond a single goal if space appears.

Estudiantes de Buenos Aires arrive in worse shape, with six straight defeats in all competitions and no league goals scored in their last five Primera B Nacional matches. Their away record is even more worrying for attacking backers: three away losses, no points, and only five goals conceded in those league trips, which fits a side that is struggling to create enough to get on the board.

The recent head-to-head also leans toward a tighter contest rather than a free-scoring one. Four of the last five meetings have stayed under 2.5 goals, including the 0-0 in March 2024 and the 1-1 in July 2024, and that history sits comfortably alongside Estudiantes’ current run of blanks.

That said, the projected 1-1 scoreline and the 0.9 xG estimate for each side do leave a little room for tension on the BTTS angle. Chacarita have failed to keep a clean sheet in nine straight matches, yet Estudiantes’ seven-game run without a goal in the league is hard to ignore, especially given their away scoring problems.

My prediction is BTTS - No at 50/100. Estudiantes have gone five league matches without scoring and are 0-0-5 in the table, with no away goals at all in three league trips. Chacarita’s home form has not been airtight, but their recent matches have generally stayed low enough for one side to be shut out. The head-to-head is also useful here, with four of the last five meetings finishing under 2.5 goals.