Unión arrive having taken only one win from their last four league matches, but that sequence still includes a draw with Boca Juniors and a 4-4 game away to Independiente, so their recent home-facing output has not been short of threat. The bigger point for this cup tie is that they have scored in five of their last six, and even in defeat to Defensa y Justicia they finished with 19 shots, which suggests enough attacking volume to carry them at home.

Agropecuario’s recent spell points the other way for an away visit like this. They are unbeaten in their last three, but two of those were draws, including a 0-0 at Ciudad de Bolivar and a 1-1 at Güemes, and their latest away win came back in February against Temperley. The fact they have gone five straight league matches under 2.5 goals also fits a side that can stay compact but has not been producing many open games.

There is a small tension in that Unión’s last six have not all been calm, with the 4-4 at Independiente standing out as an outlier, while Agropecuario’s recent defensive numbers away from home have been respectable. Even so, the broader pattern is still favourable to the hosts: Unión have won three of their last six, they have been first to score in five of their last six, and Agropecuario have not shown much away authority in this run.

The xG projection of 2.4 to 0.7 also leans clearly toward Unión, with the home side expected to create far more and the visitors likely to be limited to scraps. Copa Argentina can produce tighter scorelines than the numbers suggest, but the balance of recent chances, scoring frequency, and Agropecuario’s draw-heavy away pattern still points to the hosts taking control.

My prediction is Home Win at 67/100. Unión have the stronger chance profile, they have scored in five of their last six, Agropecuario have drawn two of their last three and have gone five matches under 2.5 goals, and the xG gap of 2.4 to 0.7 leaves the hosts with the clearer route to victory.