Colchester come into this on three matches without a win and have failed to score in three of their last six league games, which is one reason the total line looks fairly tight. Their recent home work has also been modest in scoring terms, with 28 goals in 18 home league matches and only one home draw with Crawley Town ending 0-0 on 13 March.

Walsall have a stronger away profile, but their recent results still point to a game that can stay controlled rather than open. They have just one win in their last four league matches away from home, and before beating Newport County 2-1 on 21 March they had lost three in a row in the league. That mix of solid away numbers and patchy recent finishing does not scream a high-scoring contest.

The head-to-head record also leans slightly toward caution. Five of the last seven league meetings have finished under 2.5 goals, and Colchester’s 0-2 defeat at Walsall in November was one of the lower-scoring recent clashes between the sides. With Colchester averaging just 1.3 expected goals at home and Walsall 1.2 expected goals away, the projected 1-1 scoreline sits near the ceiling rather than well above it.

There is a small tension in the numbers because both teams do have enough attacking output to nick a goal, and Walsall have scored in two of their last three league games. Even so, Colchester’s recent run of limited output, along with the generally modest home-and-away scoring averages in this division, keeps the total goals expectation on the low side.

My prediction is Under 2.5 Goals at 8/13. Colchester have gone three league matches without a win and have failed to score in three of their last six, while five of the last seven league meetings between these sides have stayed under this line. Colchester’s home games and Walsall’s away matches also carry middling scoring numbers, and the xG projection of 1.3 to 1.2 points to a match that is more likely to finish level than explode.