Confiança come into this Copa do Nordeste fixture after a heavy 4-1 loss at Sousa EC, while their league campaign still shows just one goal scored and four conceded from one outing. The bigger picture for a low-scoring angle is that they have stayed under 2.5 goals in five of their last six and have not been involved in many open games at home, where their league record is still 0-0 after one match.

Fluminense-PI arrive off a 1-1 home draw with Juazeirense, and that followed a 0-0 away result against Trem and a 3-0 loss to Goiás. Across their last four they have only reached three total goals once, and they have gone three matches without a win. That is not a strong profile for a match that suddenly breaks into a high-scoring affair.

There is a small tension with the projected 2-1 scoreline and the 1.7 to 0.6 xG split, which points to Confiança having the better chance of scoring twice. Even so, the overall shape still leans short of four goals: both sides have recent matches that clustered around one or two goals, and Fluminense-PI have also gone three straight without a clean sheet.

Confiança’s home numbers in the league are still blank on the results side, but the broader scoring trend around this fixture is more useful here than a win-draw-loss read. The away side have been held to one goal or fewer in three of their last four, and Confiança’s own recent matches have not produced a steady stream of goals despite the 4-1 defeat in Sousa.

My prediction is Under 3.5 Goals at 17/100. Confiança have stayed under 2.5 goals in five of their last six, Fluminense-PI have produced only one match above three total goals in their last four, and their most recent outing finished 1-1 after a 0-0 away draw earlier in March. The xG picture is still fairly modest overall, with 1.7 for Confiança and 0.6 for Fluminense-PI, so a total of four or more looks a little too high.