Connah’s Quay Nomads come into this one with the stronger home profile, having taken 27 points from 14 league games at home and scoring 32 times there. Their last two outings have also brought two wins, including a 2-1 home success over Penybont on 21 March and a 4-2 away win at Caernarfon Town, so their attacking edge is currently holding up well enough to support a home result.

Barry Town are not in bad shape, but their away record is a level below Connah’s Quay’s home numbers. They have collected 16 points from 14 away matches, with four wins, four draws and six defeats, and their 17 away goals scored suggest they can compete without always having the edge. That leaves them with a respectable platform, though not quite the away consistency you want when visiting a side near the top of the table.

The head-to-head also leans the right way for the hosts. Connah’s Quay won the most recent meeting at home 3-1 in January, and Barry’s 1-0 win in February came in their own stadium. With Connah’s Quay sitting second in the league and Barry fourth, the gap is not huge, but the home side’s superior season record and better goal return at home give them the more reliable profile.

There is a small tension here in that Barry have won four of their last five league games and have often been competitive in this fixture, so a home win is not a free hit. Still, Connah’s Quay’s home record, their recent two-match winning run, and Barry’s middling away output point toward the hosts having the cleaner route to three points.

My prediction is Home Win at 7/10. Connah’s Quay have an 8-3-3 home record in the league, Barry’s away record is only four wins from 14, and the Nomads have won two straight while scoring five goals in that spell. The 3-1 home win in the January meeting also fits the idea that Connah’s Quay are the more dependable side on this ground.