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Çorum FK arrive in excellent scoring shape and, more importantly for this market, their home record is built on control rather than chaos. They have won all six of their last six league matches, and at home they have collected 36 points from 15 games with only 10 goals conceded. That kind of split usually leaves opponents needing something special to break through, especially against a side that have been tighter on the road than at home but still average only 1.2 goals per away game.
Bandırmaspor’s recent run has been steadier than explosive. They have drawn three in a row after three straight wins, and their last away outing finished 0-0 at Boluspor with just 0.23 xG and only one big chance. That is the sort of profile that leans towards a low-event contest, but it also underlines how limited they can be away from home when they are not on the front foot.
The head-to-head record also leans towards caution. Five of the last six meetings have gone under 2.5 goals, including three goalless draws, and the most recent meeting finished 1-0 to Bandırmaspor. Çorum’s own home numbers are the stronger clue here: they have conceded only 10 times in league matches at this ground, and Bandırmaspor’s away total of 18 goals in 16 trips is not a powerful scoring return.
There is a small tension with Çorum’s current winning streak, because their recent results have included several 2-0 and 2-1 scores, so a clean sheet is never guaranteed. Even so, the combination of Çorum’s home defensive record, Bandırmaspor’s three-match scoring drought, and that 0.23 xG away performance points more towards one side keeping things shut than both teams finding a way through.
My prediction is BTTS - No at 4/5. Çorum have kept opponents quiet at home all season, Bandırmaspor have failed to score in their last two league matches, and their most recent away game produced just 0.23 xG. The head-to-head also favours a restrictive game, with five of the last six meetings finishing under 2.5 goals and several ending without both teams scoring.
