Costa Adeje Tenerife come into this with the kind of recent security that suits a home win angle. They have won four of their last six league matches, including the 1-0 away victory at DUX Logroño on 22 March and the 4-0 home win over Levante UD, while their only defeat in that span came at Real Madrid. Madrid CFF, by contrast, have two draws and three defeats in their last six, and they have gone two league games without a win.

The stronger home-side case is also visible in the season totals. Costa Adeje Tenerife are fourth with 42 points from 11 wins, 9 draws and only 3 defeats, and their defensive record of 16 goals conceded is the best in this matchup. Madrid CFF sit 10th and have already allowed 43 league goals, which is a much softer profile for an away side facing one of the better teams in the division. The xG line also leans the same way, with Costa Adeje Tenerife projected at 2.0 and Madrid CFF at 0.7.

Recent head-to-head results are another clear pointer toward Costa Adeje Tenerife. They have won the last three meetings, including the 1-0 Copa de SM La Reina victory in Madrid on 4 February and the 2-0 league win there in November. Costa Adeje Tenerife have also kept three clean sheets in those head-to-head games, which matters because Madrid CFF have struggled to finish chances consistently in their recent away fixtures.

There is a small caveat in that Costa Adeje Tenerife’s recent wins have often been tight rather than expansive, and a 2-1 scoreline would be more in line with the projection than a comfortable rout. Even so, Madrid CFF’s away form, their leaky defensive numbers, and Costa Adeje Tenerife’s repeated success in this fixture all point toward the hosts having the clearer path.

My prediction is Home Win at 3/4. Costa Adeje Tenerife have won four of their last six league matches, they have taken the last three head-to-head meetings, and they have been far steadier at the back than Madrid CFF, who have conceded 43 goals and are coming in without a win in two. The projected edge in chances also favours the home side, even if the most likely winning margin looks fairly narrow.