Crawley Town come into this one stuck in a long winless spell, with four draws and two defeats from their last six league matches and no victory in ten. Even so, their recent games have not been short on action: the 2-2 draw with Swindon Town, the 1-1 draws with Barnet and Chesterfield, and the 0-0 at Colchester all point to a side that can stay in matches, but not always close them out.

Gillingham’s run is even more erratic. They have gone five league games without a win and have lost four of their last five, including the 1-2 defeat to Bristol Rovers on 21 March and the heavy losses at Cambridge United and against Milton Keynes Dons. Their away record is not especially secure either, with 19 goals scored and 24 conceded on the road, which fits a game where both teams can find openings rather than one settled, low-tempo contest.

The scoring profile leans toward a match with multiple goals. Crawley’s home games have averaged 24 goals for and 26 against across 19 league fixtures, while Gillingham’s away matches have also tended to leave chances at both ends. Recent head-to-head meetings include a 2-2 draw in November 2025, and four of the last five league meetings between these sides have stayed under 2.5 goals, so there is a small tension here; still, the current form and the defensive numbers point more toward a lively evening than another tight stalemate.

Crawley’s home draw pattern and Gillingham’s run without a clean sheet also support that view. Crawley have drawn a lot at home, but those matches have still produced enough chances for both sides to score, while Gillingham have conceded in each of their last five league outings. With Crawley averaging 1.5 expected goals and Gillingham 1.2 on the projection, a 2-1 type of game looks more plausible than a cagey 1-0.

My prediction is Over 2.5 Goals at 17/20. Crawley have seen enough open games at home to keep goal expectancy high, Gillingham have gone five league matches without a clean sheet, and both sides arrive with fragile recent defensive records. The 2-2 head-to-head last November also fits the case for another game with at least three goals, even if the recent meetings have sometimes been tighter than the wider form suggests.