Croatia U19 come into this one with a strong attacking base after beating Switzerland U19 4-1 on 25 March, a result that followed a 2-0 away win over Georgia U19 and keeps them two games unbeaten. Their recent home outing produced four goals and, across their last six, they have scored in five, so they are carrying enough threat to justify confidence in a home result.

Norway U19 have been more uneven, with only one win in their last five and a run that includes a 2-2 draw with France U19, narrow defeats to Germany U19 and the Netherlands U19, and a 2-2 draw with England U19 earlier in the cycle. They have taken goals into most of those games, but the pattern has been less stable away from home and they have not shown the same consistency Croatia have at the moment.

For a home win, the key point is that Croatia are arriving in better shape and with a stronger recent ceiling. Their 4-1 win over Switzerland U19 was backed by eight shots on target, while Norway allowed France U19 nine shots on target in their latest match before settling for a draw. The only head-to-head in the database is a 3-2 Norway win in 2019, so there is some caution in the background, but the current form points more clearly towards Croatia.

The projected 2-1 scoreline also fits a home victory: Croatia’s xG is listed at 1.8 compared with Norway’s 1.0, which suggests a narrow edge rather than a runaway. Croatia’s recent results show they can score enough to control matches, while Norway’s habit of conceding in tight games leaves them vulnerable if the hosts start quickly.

My prediction is Home Win at 5/4. Croatia have the better recent form, they are coming off a 4-1 home win, and the xG projection gives them the clearer attacking edge at 1.8 to 1.0. Norway have been hard to shut out, but they have also gone four matches without a win before the France draw, which makes the home side the more reliable choice here.