Crotone come into this one with enough home control to justify favouritism, and their recent numbers point in the right direction for a home win. They have won three of their last six league matches, including a 4-1 away success at Trapani and a 2-0 home win over Cavese, while their latest two outings brought a draw and a narrow home loss. The overall balance is still positive, but the main appeal here is what they do at home rather than their away form.

At the Stadio Ezio Scida, Crotone have been much harder to beat, with nine home wins, only one draw and six defeats, and just 10 goals conceded across those 16 matches. That is a strong base for a home-result angle, especially against an opponent whose away record is decent but not dominant. Audace Cerignola have taken six away wins, yet they have also lost six on the road and have shipped 21 away goals, so they are not travelling like a side that should be priced above the hosts.

The recent head-to-head record also leans Crotone’s way at this venue, with the home side winning 2-1 here in March 2025 after a 1-1 draw and a 1-0 away defeat in the previous meetings. Crotone have also been scoring consistently enough to stay competitive in these fixtures, while Audace Cerignola’s away profile leaves room for pressure if the match becomes open. There is a small tension, though, because Cerignola arrive on the back of a 1-0 win and have collected points well enough to keep this from looking straightforward.

Recent xG numbers fit the same picture. Crotone’s 2-2 draw at Sorrento produced 1.4 xG, while Audace Cerignola’s 1-0 home win over Giugliano came with 2.0 xG, but their away performance level is notably weaker than their home output. The league home/away benchmarks also nudge this toward the hosts, with home sides averaging more goals and xG than away sides in Serie C Group C. A 2-1 scoreline is plausible, but the bigger point is that Crotone’s home control and Cerignola’s mixed away record give the home side the cleaner route to victory.

My prediction is Home Win at 3/4. Crotone have won nine of their 16 home league matches and have conceded only 10 goals at home, which is a strong platform for a result. Audace Cerignola have lost six of their 16 away games, so their road record leaves them vulnerable against a side that is much stronger on its own ground. The recent meeting at this stadium also finished 2-1 to Crotone, and that fits the same direction even if Cerignola’s recent win means this is not a free hit.