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Crystal Palace come in without a league table to lean on, so the sharper angle is their home record in this tie and the way their recent games have stayed tight. They have drawn three of their last five in all competitions, and at Selhurst Park they held Leeds United 0-0 and beat Zrinjski Mostar 2-0, which fits a home side that can keep control of a knockout first leg.
Fiorentina arrive on a six-game unbeaten run, but that has not always translated into free-scoring away football. Their recent wins at Hellas Verona and Raków Częstochowa were both by one goal, and the 1-0 in Verona came from only 0.36 xG. That points to a side capable of competing, yet not one that has consistently produced enough away chance volume to look overwhelming.
Crystal Palace’s own attacking numbers still give them a route to the result. They created 1.53 xG in the 1-1 draw at AEK Larnaca, produced 17 shots and three big chances, and their home average in the league context is stronger than Fiorentina’s away benchmark on goals and xG. Even so, the projected 2-1 scoreline leaves a little room for Fiorentina to score, which is why the home win call is more about Palace edging a close game than dominating it.
There is also a clear defensive case for Palace to avoid defeat, because they are four matches unbeaten and have already kept clean sheets against Leeds United and Zrinjski Mostar in this run. Fiorentina have scored in four of their last five, so the visitors are not easy to shut out, but their away wins have been narrow and their most recent league outing was decided by a single late goal. That leaves Palace with enough control and home-edge evidence to shade it.
My prediction is Crystal Palace to win at 7/10. Palace are unbeaten in four, they have already shown they can keep home games under control with a 0-0 and a 2-0 in this run, and Fiorentina’s away wins have come by thin margins. The visitors’ recent 1-0 at Verona came from limited chance creation, which makes a home victory the more reliable side of the contest.
