Cyprus U21 come into this one after a heavy 5-0 win over San Marino U21, but their home record in the group is still bleak: two home defeats from two, no goals scored and nine conceded. That matters far more here than the San Marino result, because Spain U21 have already shown they can control this fixture and did exactly that in the 3-0 win in September.

Spain U21 have been perfect in qualification so far, winning all five of their group matches and conceding only two goals. Away from home they have two wins from two, with five goals scored and only one conceded, which gives them a very strong platform for another victory in Cyprus. Cyprus, by contrast, have lost four of their five qualifiers and have been first to concede in four of their last five.

The scoring pattern also leans Spain’s way. Cyprus have seen five of their last six matches finish with more than 2.5 goals, while Spain have gone over that line in six of their last seven, so a 1-2 type of game is not far-fetched. Even so, the home side’s lack of goals in this group means the main danger to the away side is not a draw but whether Cyprus can contribute much at all.

Spain’s recent results are stronger and more reliable for this market, with five wins from their last six and a clean 2-0 away win at Romania in November. They also scored first in five of their last six, which is useful against a Cyprus team that have been first to concede in four of five. The only slight tension is that Spain’s away wins have not always been blowouts, but they have still done enough to take control.

My prediction is Away Win at 1/8. Spain U21 are unbeaten in qualification, have won both away group games, and have already beaten Cyprus U21 3-0 in this section. Cyprus have lost two from two at home without scoring, while Spain have conceded just once on the road in the group. That is a strong enough profile to trust the visitors to finish the job.