Denmark U19 come into this one unbeaten in their last two, having held Belgium U19 to a 0-0 away draw on 25 March after beating Austria U19 2-1 in their previous outing. Their longer recent run is mixed rather than flawless, but the key point for a home-win angle is that they have avoided defeat in three straight international games and have already produced two strong home wins in this sample, 6-0 against San Marino U19 and 5-0 against Montenegro U19.

Latvia U19 arrive with a far weaker recent profile, as they have gone five matches without a win and lost their most recent game 3-0 away to Czechia U19. Their other results in this spell have also been patchy, including draws with Scotland U19 and Italy U19, plus defeats against Spain U19 and France U19. That leaves them short on the kind of stability needed to take anything from a fixture like this.

The goal numbers lean Denmark’s way as well, even if the projected 2-1 scoreline does leave a small opening for Latvia to get on the board. Denmark’s recent home wins were emphatic, while Latvia have conceded three or more in two of their last three outings and were limited to no shots on target in the defeat to Czechia U19. Denmark’s 2.1 expected goals compared with Latvia’s 0.9 also points to the hosts controlling enough of the game to keep the result in their favour.

There is a small caveat in that Denmark’s latest match ended scoreless against Belgium, so they do not need to be explosive to win this, but the overall balance still sits with the hosts. Latvia’s five-game winless spell and Denmark’s unbeaten stretch of three matchups without a loss both support the home side. A previous meeting also went Denmark’s way, with a 2-1 away win in November 2017.

My prediction is Home Win at 1/5. Denmark U19 have gone three matches without a loss, Latvia U19 have gone five without a win, and Latvia were just beaten 3-0 by Czechia U19. Denmark’s home sample also includes two heavy wins, and their 2.1 xG projection is comfortably ahead of Latvia’s 0.9, which suits a home result even if the likely score is not a one-sided rout.