Denmark’s recent games strongly point toward goals. Five of their last five have gone over 2.5, and across their last six they have scored 16 times while conceding 9. Even their two matches in November cleared this line comfortably, with a 2-2 draw against Belarus followed by the 4-2 defeat away to Scotland.

North Macedonia bring the clearest counterpoint because their xG projection is modest at 0.5, so the bet may rely heavily on Denmark doing most of the work. Still, North Macedonia’s recent results also support the over: they have seen 8 goals in their last outing, won 5-0 against Liechtenstein, drew 1-1 twice, and over the last six matches they have scored 9 and conceded 10. That is not the profile of a side consistently keeping totals low.

The latest matches from both teams were especially open. Denmark’s 2-4 loss to Scotland on 18 November produced 28 shots in total and two big chances each, while North Macedonia’s 1-7 loss in Wales came with only 0.6 xG for them but 3.1 xGA against, plus 10 shots on target conceded. Those numbers underline how quickly this line can be covered if Denmark create at their projected level.

There is a little tension because the projected score is 3-0 rather than a both-sides contribution, but that still lands the over on its own. Denmark’s attacking projection is very high at 3.3 xG, and the home scoring environment in this competition sits above the away average for goals, which adds a small extra nudge toward three goals being reachable even without much from North Macedonia.

My prediction is Over 2.5 Goals at 1.72. Denmark have gone over this line in each of their last five matches, their last two results alone finished with four and six total goals, and North Macedonia are coming off a 1-7 defeat after allowing 3.1 xGA to Wales. With Denmark projected at 3.3 xG, the over can land even if the visitors offer very little going forward.